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Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks Big or Small?

  • Olivier Coibion

This paper studies the small estimated effects of monetary policy shocks from standard VAR's versus the large effects from the Romer and Romer (2004) approach. The differences are driven by three factors: the different contractionary impetus, the period of reserves targeting and lag length selection. Accounting for these factors, the real effects of policy shocks are consistent across approaches and most likely medium. Alternative monetary policy shock measures from estimated Taylor rules also yield medium-sized real effects and indicate that the historical contribution of monetary policy shocks to real fluctuations has been significant, particularly during the 1970s and early 1980s.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w17034.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17034.

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Date of creation: May 2011
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Publication status: published as Olivier Coibion, 2012. "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks Big or Small?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-32, April.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17034
Note: EFG ME
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  1. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2003. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," NBER Working Papers 9459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and some Theory," Working Papers 98-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  3. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Blanchard, O., 1993. "Consumption and the Recession of 1990-1991," Working papers 93-5, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  5. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," NBER Working Papers 10220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Stacey L. Schreft, 1990. "Credit controls: 1980," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Nov, pages 25-55.
  7. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation," 2009 Meeting Papers 21, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Jon Faust & Eric Swanson & and Jonathan H. Wright, 2002. "Identifying vars based on high frequency futures data," International Finance Discussion Papers 720, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2005. "Reduced-Rank Identification of Structural Shocks in VARs," Macroeconomics 0512011, EconWPA.
  11. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
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