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The Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy: A New Measure for the United Kingdom

Listed author(s):
  • James Cloyne
  • Patrick Hürtgen

This paper estimates the effects of monetary policy based on a new, extensive real-time dataset for the United Kingdom. Employing the Romer-Romer identification approach we construct a new measure of monetary policy innovations and find that a 1 percentage point increase in the policy rate reduces output by 0.6 percent and inflation by up to 1 percentage point after 2 to 3 years. Our use of forecast data is shown to be crucial and that their omission generates the well-known price puzzle. Our estimates are more comparable to the wider VAR literature but we also reconcile our findings with the Romer-Romer estimates for the United States.

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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/mac.20150093
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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 8 (2016)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 75-102

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:8:y:2016:i:4:p:75-102
Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.20150093
Contact details of provider: Web page: https://www.aeaweb.org/aej-macro
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  1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," NBER Working Papers 10402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Mertens, Karel & Ravn, Morten O, 2011. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 8554, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zabczyk, Pawel & Ellis, Colin, 2011. "What lies beneath? A time-varying FAVAR model for the UK transmission mechanism," Working Paper Series 1320, European Central Bank.
  4. Dedola, L. & Lippi, F., 2000. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence from the Industries of Five OECD Countries," Papers 389, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  5. Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," CEPR Discussion Papers 2137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Jon Faust & Eric T. Swanson & Jonathan H. Wright, 2002. "Identifying vars based on high frequency futures data," International Finance Discussion Papers 720, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Olivier Coibion, 2011. "Are the effects of monetary policy shocks big or small?," Working Papers 90, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
  8. John Silvia & Lorenz Kueng & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S," IMF Working Papers 12/199, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
  11. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Lorenz Kueng & John Silvia, 2012. "Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 18170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets," Staff Reports 99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  13. Barakchian, S. Mahdi & Crowe, Christopher, 2013. "Monetary policy matters: Evidence from new shocks data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 950-966.
  14. Efrem Castelnuovo & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Expectations and the Price Puzzle," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0101, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
  15. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Wingender Asger M, 2011. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Risk Premia in the Interbank Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-21, January.
  17. Molodtsova, Tanya & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2008. "Taylor rules with real-time data: A tale of two countries and one exchange rate," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 63-79, October.
  18. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
  19. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "'Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts: The effects of monetary policy' : by Christopher Sims," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1001-1011, June.
  20. James Cloyne, 2013. "Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence from the United Kingdom," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1507-1528, June.
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