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Monetary Policy, External Instruments and Heteroskedasticity

Author

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  • Maximilian Podstawski
  • Thore Schlaak
  • Malte Rieth

Abstract

We develop a vector autoregressive framework for combining the information in an external instrument with the information in the second moments of the data to identify latent monetary shocks in the United States. We show that the framework improves the identification of the structural model and allows testing the validity of instruments proposed in the literature. Using a valid instrument, we then document that surprise monetary contractions lead to a medium-sized significant decline in economic activity, that the contractionary effect is also present during the great moderation, and that the role of monetary shocks in driving real and financial fluctuations is small in low and big in high volatility regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Maximilian Podstawski & Thore Schlaak & Malte Rieth, 2018. "Monetary Policy, External Instruments and Heteroskedasticity," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1749, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1749
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dominik Bertsche & Robin Braun, 2017. "Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions by Stochastic Volatility," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2017-11, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    2. Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes & Wang, Shu, 2020. "Proxy SVAR identification of monetary policy shocks: MonteCarlo evidence and insights for the US," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 404, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; structural vector autoregressions; identification with external instruments; heteroskedasticity; Markov switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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