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Oil, Automobiles, and the U.S. Economy: How Much have Things Really Changed?

  • Valerie A. Ramey
  • Daniel J. Vine

This paper studies the impact of oil shocks on the U.S. economy--and on the motor vehicle industry in particular--and re-examines whether the relationship has changed over time. We find remarkable stability in the response of aggregate real variables to oil shocks once we account for the extra costs imposed on the economy in the 1970s by price controls and a complex system of entitlements that led to some rationing and shortages. To investigate further why the response of real variables to oil shocks has not declined over time, we focus on the motor vehicle industry, which is considered the most important channel through which oil shocks affect the economy. We find that, contrary to common perceptions, the share of motor vehicles in total U.S. goods production has shown little decline over time. Moreover, within the motor vehicle industry, the effects of oil shocks on the mix of vehicle sold and on capacity utilization appear to have been proportional in recent decades to the effects observed in the 1970s.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16067.

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Date of creation: Jun 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Oil, Automobiles, and the U.S. Economy: How Much Have Things Really Changed? , Valerie A. Ramey, Daniel J. Vine. in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010, Volume 25 , Acemoglu and Woodford. 2011
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16067
Note: EFG ME
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