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Changes in monetary regimes and the identification of monetary policy shocks: Narrative evidence from Canada

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  • Champagne, Julien
  • Sekkel, Rodrigo

Abstract

Using narrative evidence with a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada’s staff projections (1974–2015), we construct a new measure of monetary policy shocks and estimate the effects of monetary policy in Canada. We show it is crucial to account for the break in the conduct of monetary policy caused by the announcement of inflation targeting in 1991. A 100-basis-point increase in our new shock series leads to a 1.0 percent peak decrease in real GDP and a 0.5 percent fall in the price level, while not accounting for the break leads to a persistent decrease in GDP and a price puzzle. Albeit the change in monetary regime, the effects of monetary policy have not changed much before and after IT.

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  • Champagne, Julien & Sekkel, Rodrigo, 2018. "Changes in monetary regimes and the identification of monetary policy shocks: Narrative evidence from Canada," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 72-87.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:99:y:2018:i:c:p:72-87
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.06.002
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    3. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2020. "The Macroeconomy as a Random Forest," Papers 2006.12724, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
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    5. Cantore, Cristiano & Ferroni, Filippo & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2018. "The missing link: monetary policy and the labor share," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90873, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Shutao Cao & Wei Dong, 2019. "Production Networks and the Propagation of Commodity Price Shocks," 2019 Meeting Papers 612, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Matthieu Verstraete & Lena Suchanek, 2018. "Understanding Monetary Policy and its Effects: Evidence from Canadian Firms Using the Business Outlook Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 7221, CESifo.
    8. Tony Chernis & Corinne Luu, 2018. "Disaggregating Household Sensitivity to Monetary Policy by Expenditure Category," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-32, Bank of Canada.
    9. Thomas J Carter & Rhys Mendes & Lawrence L Schembri, 2018. "Credibility, Flexibility and Renewal: The Evolution of Inflation Targeting in Canada," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: John Simon & Maxwell Sutton (ed.),Central Bank Frameworks: Evolution or Revolution?, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    10. Kronick, Jeremy M. & Villarreal, Francisco G., 2019. "Distributional Impacts of Low for Long Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 93483, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Olivier Gervais, 2019. "How Oil Supply Shocks Affect the Global Economy: Evidence from Local Projections," Discussion Papers 2019-6, Bank of Canada.
    12. Julien Champagne & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2018. "Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts," Staff Working Papers 18-52, Bank of Canada.
    13. Jeremy Kronick & Steve Ambler, 2019. "Do demographics affect monetary policy transmission in Canada?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 787-811, April.
    14. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
    15. Murgia, Lucia M., 2020. "The effect of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic variables: Evidence from the Eurozone," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    16. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2020. "Time-Varying Parameters as Ridge Regressions," Papers 2009.00401, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Narrative identification; Real-time data; Forecasts; Business cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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