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ToTEM II: An Updated Version of the Bank of Canada’s Quarterly Projection Model

Author Info

  • José Dorich
  • Michael K. Johnston
  • Rhys R. Mendes
  • Stephen Murchison
  • Yang Zhang

Abstract

This report provides a detailed technical description of an updated version of the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM II), which replaced ToTEM (Murchison and Rennison 2006) in June 2011 as the Bank of Canada’s quarterly projection model for Canada. ToTEM has been improved along a number of dimensions, with important changes to the model structure, including: (i) multiple interest rates, (ii) sector-specific demand specifications for consumption, housing investment and inventory investment, (iii) a role for financial wealth in household consumption, and (iv) rule-of-thumb price and wage setters. These new features remove some of the restrictions on model dynamics implied by assumptions in ToTEM, making ToTEM II more general and flexible than its predecessor. Furthermore, most of ToTEM II’s parameters are now formally estimated using full information estimation techniques, leading to significantly improved in-sample goodness of fit. The report discusses the model’s estimation and reviews the most important changes in the model’s properties. Finally, some important applications of ToTEM II in addressing recent policy questions are provided.

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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Technical Reports with number 100.

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Length: 88 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocatr:100
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Keywords: Economic models; Business fluctuations and cycles;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
  • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
  • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
  • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
  • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
  • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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  1. Andrew T. Levin & J. David López-Salido & Edward Nelson & Tack Yun, 2008. "Macroeconometric equivalence, microeconomic dissonance, and the design of monetary policy," Working Papers 2008-035, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  2. Stephen Murchison & Andrew Rennison, 2006. "ToTEM: The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model," Technical Reports 97, Bank of Canada.
  3. Dimitri Vayanos & Robin Greenwood, 2008. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns," FMG Discussion Papers dp607, Financial Markets Group.
  4. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
  6. Michael Dotsey & Robert G. King, 2005. "Implications of State Dependent-Pricing for Dynamic Macroeconomic Models," Boston University - Department of Economics - Macroeconomics Working Papers Series WP2005-002, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  7. José Dorich & Rhys R. Mendes & Yang Zhang, 2011. "Introducing Multiple Interest rates in ToTEM," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2011(Summer), pages 3-10.
  8. Boris Hofmann & Bilyana Bogdanova, 2012. "Taylor rules and monetary policy: a global "Great Deviation"?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
  9. Brahima Coulibaly & Horacio Sapriza & Andrei Zlate, 2011. "Trade credit and international trade during the 2008-09 global financial crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 1020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. J. M. Culbertson, 1957. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 485-517.
  11. Paul Fenton & Stephen Murchison, 2006. "ToTEM: The Bank of Canada's New Projection and Policy-Analysis Model," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2006(Autumn), pages 5-18.
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Cited by:

  1. Michelle Lewis & Dr John McDermott, 2016. "New Zealand's experience with changing its inflation target and the impact on inflation expectations," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  2. Sami Alpanda & Gino Cateau & Cesaire Meh, 2014. "A policy model to analyze macroprudential regulations and monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 461, Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Markus Kirchner & Rodrigo Tranamil, 2016. "Calvo Wages Vs. Search Frictions: a Horse Race in a DSGE Model of a Small Open Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 778, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Rhys R. Mendes, 2015. "The Optimal Level of the Inflation Target: A Selective Review of the Literature and Outstanding Issues," Discussion Papers 15-8, Bank of Canada.
  5. Laurence Savoie-Chabot & Mikael Khan, 2015. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices: Theory and Recent Evidence," Discussion Papers 15-9, Bank of Canada.
  6. Sami Alpanda & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2016. "Should Monetary Policy Lean Against Housing Market Booms?," Staff Working Papers 16-19, Bank of Canada.
  7. Stephen S. Poloz, 2016. "The Doug Purvis Memorial Lecture—Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Financial Stability: The Medium Term Is Still the Message," Discussion Papers 16-13, Bank of Canada.
  8. Rhys R. Mendes, 2014. "The Neutral Rate of Interest in Canada," Discussion Papers 14-5, Bank of Canada.
  9. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Kristina Hess & Abeer Reza, 2014. "International Transmission Channels of U.S. Quantitative Easing: Evidence from Canada," Staff Working Papers 14-43, Bank of Canada.
  10. Yahong Zhang, 2013. "Unemployment Fluctuations in a Small Open-Economy Model with Segmented Labour Markets: The Case of Canada," Staff Working Papers 13-40, Bank of Canada.
  11. Olivier Gervais & Marc-André Gosselin, 2014. "Analyzing and Forecasting the Canadian Economy through the LENS Model," Technical Reports 102, Bank of Canada.

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