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Designing a Simple Loss Function for the Fed: Does the Dual Mandate Make Sense?

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  • Linde, Jesper
  • Kim, Jinill
  • Nunes, Ricardo
  • Debortoli, Davide

Abstract

Yes, it makes a lot of sense. Using the Smets and Wouters (2007) model of the U.S. economy, we find that the role of the output gap should be equal to or even more important than that of inflation when designing a simple loss function to represent household welfare. Moreover, we document that a loss function with nominal wage inflation and the hours gap provides an even better approximation of the true welfare function than a standard objective based on inflation and the output gap. Our results hold up when we introduce interest rate smoothing in the simple mandate to capture the observed gradualism in policy behavior and to ensure that the probability of the federal funds rate hitting the zero lower bound is negligible.

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  • Linde, Jesper & Kim, Jinill & Nunes, Ricardo & Debortoli, Davide, 2015. "Designing a Simple Loss Function for the Fed: Does the Dual Mandate Make Sense?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10409, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10409
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    2. Ragna Alstadheim & Øistein Røisland, 2017. "When Preferences for a Stable Interest Rate Become Self‐Defeating," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 393-415, March.
    3. Martin Seneca, 2020. "Risk Shocks and Monetary Policy in the New Normal," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 185-232, December.
    4. Gelain, Paolo & Ilbas, Pelin, 2017. "Monetary and macroprudential policies in an estimated model with financial intermediation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 164-189.
    5. Verona, Fabio & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Drumond, Inês, 2017. "Financial shocks, financial stability, and optimal Taylor rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 187-207.
    6. Bodenstein, Martin & Zhao, Junzhu, 2020. "Employment, wages and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 77-96.
    7. Tayler, William J. & Zilberman, Roy, 2016. "Macroprudential regulation, credit spreads and the role of monetary policy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 144-158.
    8. Górajski, Mariusz & Kuchta, Zbigniew, 2023. "Coordination and non-coordination risks of monetary and macroprudential authorities: A robust welfare analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central banks' objectives; Household welfare; Linear-quadratic approximation; Monetary policy design; Simple loss function; Smets-wouters model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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