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How credible is the Federal Reserve?:A structural estimation of policy re-optimizations

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  • Aeimit Lakdawala

    (Michigan State University)

  • Davide Debortoli

    (University of California, San Diego)

Abstract

Using a Markov-switching Bayesian likelihood approach, we examine the behavior of the Federal Reserve over the post WWII period. We estimate a medium-scale macroeconomic model, where monetary policy is chosen by a central bank endowed with a commitment technology, and where a regime-switching process governs occasional re-optimizations of announced plans. Our estimates show that deviations from commitment plans were rather infrequent: seven main re-optimization episodes are identified, at times consistent with conventional narrative accounts of the US monetary history. Our framework is used to discuss the role of policy re-optimizations as sources monetary policy shocks, and to assess the importance of central bank credibility through counterfactual analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Aeimit Lakdawala & Davide Debortoli, 2013. "How credible is the Federal Reserve?:A structural estimation of policy re-optimizations," 2013 Meeting Papers 1333, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:1333
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    3. Gersbach, Hans & Liu, Yulin & Tischhauser, Martin, 2021. "Versatile forward guidance: escaping or switching?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Ippei Fujiwara & Timothy Kam & Takeki Sunakawa, 2016. "A note on imperfect credibility," CAMA Working Papers 2016-37, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2017. "Can We Identify the Fed's Preferences?," Working Papers halshs-01549908, HAL.
    6. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2021. "Imperfect Credibility versus No Credibility of Optimal Monetary Policy," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 72(1), pages 43-63.
    7. Ricardo Nunes & Jinill Kim & Jesper Linde & Davide Debortoli, 2014. "Designing a Simple Loss Function for the Fed: Does the Dual Mandate Make Sense?," 2014 Meeting Papers 1043, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Fabio Canetg, 2018. "Strategic Deviations in Optimal Monetary Policy," Diskussionsschriften dp1817, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    9. Ragna Alstadheim & Øistein Røisland, 2017. "When Preferences for a Stable Interest Rate Become Self‐Defeating," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 393-415, March.
    10. Jordi Galí, 2018. "The State of New Keynesian Economics: A Partial Assessment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 87-112, Summer.
    11. Jeffrey Campbell & Jacob Weber, 2021. "Discretion rather than rules: Equilibrium uniqueness and forward guidance with inconsistent optimal plans," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 243-254, July.
    12. Tatiana Kirsanova & Celsa Machado & Ana Paula Ribeiro, 2018. "Should the ECB Coordinate EMU Fiscal Policies?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(3), pages 237-280, June.
    13. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Wu, Shu, 2017. "Federal Reserve credibility and the term structure of interest rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 364-389.
    14. Givens, Gregory E., 2016. "On the gains from monetary policy commitment under deep habits," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 19-36.
    15. Luca Gambetti & Christoph Görtz & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2022. "The Effect of News Shocks and Monetary Policy," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova, volume 44, pages 139-164, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    16. Davide Debortoli & Jinill Kim & Jesper Lindé & Ricardo Nunes, 2019. "Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks: Does a Dual Mandate Make Sense?," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(621), pages 2010-2038.
    17. Liu, Ding & Zhang, Yue & Sun, Weihong, 2020. "Commitment or discretion? An empirical investigation of monetary policy preferences in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 409-419.
    18. Fujiwara, Ippei & Kam, Timothy & Sunakawa, Takeki, 2019. "On two notions of imperfect credibility in optimal monetary policies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 22-25.
    19. Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2017. "How optimal is US monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 96-111.
    20. Haberis, Alex & Harrison, Richard & Waldron, Matthew, 2017. "Uncertain forward guidance," Bank of England working papers 654, Bank of England.
    21. Boris Chafwehe Author-Email: boris.chafwehe@uclouvain.be & Rigas Oikonomou & Romanos Priftis & Lukas Vogel, 2018. "Endogenous forward guidance," Working Paper Research 354, National Bank of Belgium.
    22. Fabio Canetg, 2021. "Strategic deviations in optimal monetary policy," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 157(1), pages 1-13, December.
    23. Tatiana Kirsanova & Celsa Machado & Ana Paula Ribeiro, 2020. "Tight and Loose, and Red and Blue: A 'Dance' of Macro Policies in the US," Working Papers 2020_14, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    24. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Jacob P. Weber, 2018. "Open Mouth Operations," Working Paper Series WP-2018-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    25. Roulleau-Pasdeloup, Jordan, 2020. "Optimal monetary policy and determinacy under active/passive regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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