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Monetary transmission in money markets: The not-so-elusive missing piece of the puzzle

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  • Chen, Zhengyang
  • Valcarcel, Victor J.

Abstract

We investigate the effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks from alternative policy indicators for a modern sample encompassing 1988–2020. The choice of the Wu and Xia (2016) shadow federal funds rate leads to persistent price puzzles. These puzzles arise despite inclusion of the usual suspect fixes such as commodity prices, federal funds futures and forward rate data. We find they occur at monthly and quarterly frequencies. We consider alternative indicators with the same broad monetary aggregates Keating et al. (2019) employed in their investigation of a historical sample. They provide a consistent resolution of the price puzzle and they do not require the ad hoc inclusion of commodity prices or futures data. This price puzzle correction is not a feature of our time-varying approach as it also obtains from constant parameter econometric estimation. Our analysis suggests monetary policy has transmitted substantial expansionary effects in money markets in the aftermath of the 2007 Financial Crisis and the decade that followed.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Zhengyang & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2021. "Monetary transmission in money markets: The not-so-elusive missing piece of the puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:131:y:2021:i:c:s0165188921001494
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104214
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price puzzle; Divisia money; Interest rate pass-through; Time-varying-parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VAR); Time-varying-parameter factor-augmented vector autoregressions (TVP-FAVAR); Unexpected monetary policy shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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