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Resolving Puzzles of Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Jongrim Ha
  • Dohan Kim
  • M. Ayhan Kose
  • Eswar S. Prasad

Abstract

Conventional empirical models of monetary policy transmission in emerging market economies produce puzzling results: monetary tightening often leads to an increase in prices (the price puzzle) and depreciation of the currency (the FX puzzle). We show that incorporating forward-looking expectations into standard open economy structural VAR models resolves these puzzles. Specifically, we augment the models with novel survey-based measures of expectations based on consumer, business, and professional forecasts. We find that the rise in prices following monetary tightening is related to currency depreciation, so eliminating the FX puzzle helps solve the price puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Jongrim Ha & Dohan Kim & M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad, 2024. "Resolving Puzzles of Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets," CAMA Working Papers 2024-67, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2024-67
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2024-12/67_2024_ha_kim_kose_prasad_.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Cameron Haas & Mateo Hoyos & Emiliano Libman & Guilherme K. Martins & Arslan Razmi, 2025. "Monetary Shocks and Inflation: Global Evidence from Trilemma-Based Identification," Working Papers DTE 650, CIDE, División de Economía.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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