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A New Index of Financial Conditions

  • Koop, Gary
  • Korobilis, Dimitris

We use factor augmented vector autoregressive models with time-varying coefficients to construct a financial conditions index. The time-variation in the parameters allows for the weights attached to each financial variable in the index to evolve over time. Furthermore, we develop methods for dynamic model averaging or selection which allow the financial variables entering into the FCI to change over time. We discuss why such extensions of the existing literature are important and show them to be so in an empirical application involving a wide range of financial variables.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 45463.

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Date of creation: 13 Mar 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:45463
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  1. Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2013. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 82-101, 01.
  2. Troy Matheson, 2011. "Financial Conditions Indexes for the United States and Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 11/93, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00638009, HAL.
  4. Eickmeier, Sandra & Lemke, Wolfgang & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "Classical time-varying FAVAR models - Estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8321, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  6. Marc Hallin & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2003. "Do financial variables help forecasting inflation and real activity in the Euro area ?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/2123, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  7. Eickmeier, Sandra & Lemke, Wolfgang & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "The Changing International Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from a Classical Time-Varying FAVAR," CEPR Discussion Papers 8341, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Brandon J. Bates & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, . "Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability," Working Paper 84631, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  9. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2011. "Forecasting Inflation Using Dynamic Model Averaging," Working Papers 1119, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  10. Fabio Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2010. "The Great Recession: US dynamics and spillovers to the world economy," CeRP Working Papers 103, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
  11. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2012. "Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-14, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  12. Catherine Doz & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," Post-Print peer-00844811, HAL.
  13. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2011. "Testing for structural breaks in dynamic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 71-84, July.
  14. repec:oup:qjecon:v:120:y:2005:i:1:p:387-422 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2013. "Monetary policy shocks and financial conditions: A Monte Carlo experiment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 282-303.
  16. Kaufmann, Sylvia & Schumacher, Christian, 2012. "Finding relevant variables in sparse Bayesian factor models: Economic applications and simulation results," Discussion Papers 29/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  17. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & Emi Mise & Shaun Vahey, 2008. "Real-time Prediction with UK Monetary Aggregates in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/13, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  18. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
  19. Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Assessing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks Using Dynamic Factor Models," Working Paper Series 35_09, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2009.
  20. Meligkotsidou, Loukia & Vrontos, Ioannis D., 2008. "Detecting structural breaks and identifying risk factors in hedge fund returns: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2471-2481, November.
  21. Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Dynamic factor models with time-varying parameters: measuring changes in international business cycles," Staff Reports 326, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  22. Esteban Gómez & Andrés Murcia & Nancy Zamundio, 2011. "Financial Conditions Index: Early and Leading Indicator for Colombia," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 29(66), pages 174-220, Diciembre.
  23. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2008. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Diffusion Indexes in Short Samples with Structural Change," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/17, European University Institute.
  24. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
  25. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2012. "Forecasting government bond yields with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2026-2047.
  26. Jan Hatzius & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. D'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
  28. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2011. "Monitoring financial stability: a financial conditions index approach," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 22-43.
  29. William English & Kostas Tsatsaronis & Edda Zoli, 2005. "Assessing the predictive power of measures of financial conditions for macroeconomic variables," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 228-52 Bank for International Settlements.
  30. Kimberly Beaton & René Lalonde & Corinne Luu, 2009. "A Financial Conditions Index for the United States," Discussion Papers 09-11, Bank of Canada.
  31. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  32. Felices, Guillermo & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2012. "Are emerging market indicators of vulnerability to financial crises decoupling from global factors?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 321-331.
  33. Stephan Danninger & Irina Tytell & Ravi Balakrishnan & Selim Elekdag, 2009. "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 09/133, International Monetary Fund.
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