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Financial Conditions Index: Early and Leading Indicator for Colombia

Author

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  • Esteban Gómez
  • Andrés Murcia
  • Nancy Zamundio

Abstract

This paper is an attempt at constructing a simple and effective macroprudential tool for policymakers. By integrating the joint occurrences of the main financial markets in Colombia into a single Financial Conditions Index (FCI), we hope to synthesize the information embedded in them regarding possible future economic outcomes. To do this, we use monthly data on 21 variables for the period comprised between July, 1991 - June, 2010 and apply Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on their correlation matrix. On the one hand, we evaluate the predictive capacity of the FCI in forecasting GDP growth at different time horizons and find that it performs better as a leading indicator of real activity than other individual financial variables and an autoregressive model of GDP growth. Additionally, we are interested in testing the FCI’s long-term capability to correctly anticipate periods of distress in the economy, and find that the index could be used as an effective early-warning indicator. Hence, our FCI seems to represent a useful instrument for both financial stability and macroprudential supervision purposes.

Suggested Citation

  • Esteban Gómez & Andrés Murcia & Nancy Zamundio, 2011. "Financial Conditions Index: Early and Leading Indicator for Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 29(66), pages 174-220, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:29:y:2011:i:66:p:174-220
    DOI: 10.32468/Espe.6605
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    Cited by:

    1. Dimitris, Korobilis, 2013. "Forecasting with Factor Models: A Bayesian Model Averaging Perspective," MPRA Paper 52724, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Carlos León & Clara Machado & Andrés Murcia, 2013. "Macro-prudential assessment of Colombian financial institutions’ systemic importance," Borradores de Economia 800, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. A. Hakan Kara & Pinar Ozlu & Deren Unalmis, 2012. "Financial Conditions Indices for the Turkish Economy," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1231, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. Wilmar Cabrera & Jorge Hurtado & Miguel Morales & Juan Sebastián Rojas, 2014. "A Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS) for Colombia," Borradores de Economia 826, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Zhyvko Zinaida & Morhachov Illa & Zhelikhovska Maiia & Artiukh-Pasiuta Olena & Hnatenko Iryna & Skrypnyk Viktoriia & Yanechko Serhii, 2024. "The Influence of the US Stock Market on the Institutional Security Strategy of the Management of Innovative Development," Management Theory and Studies for Rural Business and Infrastructure Development, Sciendo, vol. 46(1), pages 104-111, March.
    6. Hakan Kara & Pinar Ozlu & Deren Unalmis, 2015. "Turkiye icin Finansal Kosullar Endeksi," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 15(3), pages 41-73.
    7. Jiménez Polanco, Miguel A. & Ramírez de León, Francisco A., 2016. "Un Indicador de Condiciones Financieras para la República Dominicana [A Financial Condition Index for the Dominican Republic]," MPRA Paper 75859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2014. "A new index of financial conditions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 101-116.
    9. Thanda Sithole & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Modeste Some, 2017. "The role of financial conditions in transmitting external shocks to South Africa," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 150, pages 36-56.
    10. Diego Alejandro Martínez-Cruz, 2021. "Indicador Combinado de Liquidez para la Deuda Pública Local Colombiana," Borradores de Economia 1167, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Esteban Gómez & Juan Carlos Mendoza & Nancy Zamudio Gómez, 2012. "CrashMetrics: An Application for Colombia," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 069, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    12. Simone Auer, 2017. "A Financial Conditions Index for the CEE economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1145, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Shaoping Wang & Fan Xu & Sanpan Chen, 2018. "Constructing a dynamic financial conditions indexes by TVP-FAVAR model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 183-186, February.
    14. Alahverdi, Atefe & Daei-Karimzadeh, Saeed & Ghobadi, Sara, 2023. "Forecasting the Trend of Macroeconomic Variables in Terms of Financial Conditions Index in Iran: TVP-FAVAR Approach (in Persian)," The Journal of Planning and Budgeting (٠صلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه), Institute for Management and Planning studies, vol. 28(3), pages 161-185, December.
    15. Ikhlaas Gurrib, 2018. "Can an Energy Futures Index Predict US Stock Market Index Movements?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 230-240.
    16. Lawson, Jeremy & Watt, Abigail & Martinez, Carolina & Fu, Rong, 2019. "Chinese Financial Conditions and their Spillovers to the Global Economy and Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 14065, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial conditions index; Early-Warning Indicators; leading indicators; Macroprudential Supervision; principal component analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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