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Early Warning Indicators for Latin America

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  • Fernando Tenjo

    ()

  • Martha López

    ()

Abstract

We explore the performance of a set of early warning indicators for a group of Latin American economies under the endogenous cycle perspective. For this group of countries, the paper confirms the results of work on industrialized countries that a combination of asset prices and credit provides valuable information of probable future financial crises. However, we go a step further in the analysis of emerging economies and find that a combination of capital flows from abroad and credit is an even superior leading indicator of such events.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Tenjo & Martha López, 2010. "Early Warning Indicators for Latin America," Borradores de Economia 608, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:608
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
    2. Fernando Tenjo Galarza & Luisa F. Charry & Martha López P. & Juan M.Ramírez C., 2007. "Acelerador Financiero y Ciclos Económicos en Colombia: Un Ejercicio Exploratorio," Borradores de Economia 451, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Alan Greenspan, 2010. "The Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 201-261.
    4. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
    5. repec:fip:fedhpr:y:2010:i:may:p:14-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
    7. Martha R. López & Juan D. Prada & Norberto Rodríguez N., 2008. "Financial Accelerator Mechanism in a Small Open Economy," Borradores de Economia 525, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Alan Greenspan, 2010. "The financial crisis and credit markets," Proceedings 1135, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    9. Oecd, 2010. "Labour markets and the crisis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 756, OECD Publishing.
    10. Marco Terrones & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2008. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms; Evidence From Macro Aggregates and Micro Data," IMF Working Papers 08/226, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2007. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 295-330, March.
    12. Potter, 2010. "Some observations and lessons from the crisis," Speech 25, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    14. Alan Greenspan, 2010. "La crisis," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 12(22), pages 15-60, January-J.
    15. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2013. "Banking crises: An equal opportunity menace," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4557-4573.
    16. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "What happens during recessions, crunches and busts?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 653-700, October.
    17. Ian Christensen & Ali Dib, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 155-178, January.
    18. Camilo E Tovar, 2006. "Devaluations, output and the balance sheet effect: a structural econometric analysis," BIS Working Papers 215, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Juan José Echavarría & Andrés González, 2012. "Choques internacionales reales y financieros y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 30(69), pages 14-66, Diciembre.
    2. Juan Pablo Zárate Perdomo & Adolfo León Cobo Serna & José Eduardo Gómez-González, 2012. "Lecciones de las crisis financieras recientes para el diseño e implementación de las políticas monetarias," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 30(69), pages 258-293, December.
    3. Amador-Torres, Juan S. & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Ojeda-Joya, Jair N. & Jaulin-Mendez, Oscar F. & Tenjo-Galarza, Fernando, 2016. "Mind the gap: Computing finance-neutral output gaps in Latin-American economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 444-452.
    4. Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2013. "Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 92-106.
    5. Esteban Gómez & Andrés Murcia & Nancy Zamudio, 2011. "Financial Conditions Index: Early and Leading Indicator for Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 29(66), pages 174-220, December.
    6. Juan Amador & José Gómez-González & Andrés Pabón, 2013. "Loan growth and bank risk: new evidence," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 27(4), pages 365-379, December.
    7. Juan Pablo Zárate Perdomo & Adolfo Léon Cobo Serna & Jose Eduardo Gómez González, 2012. "Lecciones de las crisis financieras recientes para el diseño e implementación de las políticas monetaria y financiera en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 708, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Carolina Arteaga cabrales & Carlos Huertas Campos & Sergio Olarte Armenta, 2012. "Índice de Desbalance Macroeconómico," Borradores de Economia 744, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. repec:eee:ecosys:v:41:y:2017:i:3:p:389-407 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. José Eduardo Gómez & Jair Ojeda Joya & Fernando Tenjo Galarza & Héctor Manuel Zárate Solano, 2013. "The Interdependence between Credit and Real Business Cycles in Latin American Economies," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 010833, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    11. Juan Guillermo Bedoya Ospina, 2017. "Ciclos de crédito, liquidez global y regímenes monetarios: una aproximación para América Latina," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE, vol. 78, February.
    12. Amador-Torres, J. Sebastián, 2017. "Finance-neutral potential output: An evaluation in an emerging market monetary policy context," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 389-407.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial (in) stability; early warning indicators; financial accelerator. Classification JEL: E30; E52; F30; F41.;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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