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Índice de Desbalance Macroeconómico

  • Carolina Arteaga cabrales

    ()

  • Carlos Huertas Campos

    ()

  • Sergio Olarte Armenta

    ()

La reciente crisis financiera internacional volvió a dar relevancia a la formación de ciertos desbalances macroeconómicos que pueden aumentar las vulnerabilidades de una economía frente a choques adversos. En el caso de las economías emergentes, flujos elevados de capital podrían exacerbar estos desequilibrios e intensificar sus efectos negativos. Así, este trabajo se enfoca en cuatro variables que la literatura económica ha identificado como generadoras de señales en la formación de desbalances macroeconómicos: la cuenta corriente, la tasa de cambio real, el crédito y los precios de la vivienda. Para cada una de ellas se calcularon desviaciones sobre sus medidas de largo plazo y a partir de su componente principal se construyó un Índice de Desbalance Macroeconómico (IDM). El IDM para Colombia, al igual que un índice similar para 10 países, mostró que en 21 episodios de crisis estudiados, se presentaron desbalances macroeconómicos y se observó una relación positiva entre el nivel acumulado del IDM y la probabilidad de crisis a un año.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 744.

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Length: 33
Date of creation: Oct 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:744
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  1. Fernando Tenjo Galarza & Luisa F. Charry & Martha López P. & Juan M.Ramírez C., . "Acelerador Financiero y Ciclos Económicos en Colombia: Un Ejercicio Exploratorio," Borradores de Economia 451, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Carolina Arteaga & Roderick Luna & Jair Ojeda-Joya, 2011. "Normas de cuenta corriente y tasa de cambio real de equilibrio en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 681, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Fernando Tenjo & Martha López, . "Early Warning Indicators for Latin America," Borradores de Economia 608, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  4. Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
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  7. Marcelle Chauvet & Fang Dong, 2004. "Leading indicators of country risk and currency crises: the Asian experience," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 1, pages 25 - 37.
  8. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
  9. Jack Favilukis & David Kohn & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2012. "International Capital Flows and House Prices: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 17751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Ronald MacDonald & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2001. "PPP and the Balassa Samuelson Effect; The Role of the Distribution Sector," IMF Working Papers 01/38, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Borgy, V. & Clerc, L. & Renne, J-P., 2009. "Asset-price boom-bust cycles and credit: what is the scope of macro-prudential regulation?," Working papers 263, Banque de France.
  13. Jaewoo Lee & Jonathan David Ostry & Alessandro Prati & Luca Antonio Ricci & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Exchange Rate Assessments; CGER Methodologies," IMF Occasional Papers 261, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2006. "Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 475, OECD Publishing.
  15. Carolina Arteaga & Joan Camilo Granados & Jair Ojeda Joya, 2012. "El comportamiento del tipo de cambio real en Colombia: ¿Explicado por sus fundamentales?," Borradores de Economia 742, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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