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Índice de Desbalance Macroeconómico

Author

Listed:
  • Carolina Arteaga cabrales
  • Carlos Huertas Campos
  • Sergio Olarte Armenta

Abstract

La reciente crisis financiera internacional volvió a dar relevancia a la formación de ciertos desbalances macroeconómicos que pueden aumentar las vulnerabilidades de una economía frente a choques adversos. En el caso de las economías emergentes, flujos elevados de capital podrían exacerbar estos desequilibrios e intensificar sus efectos negativos. Así, este trabajo se enfoca en cuatro variables que la literatura económica ha identificado como generadoras de señales en la formación de desbalances macroeconómicos: la cuenta corriente, la tasa de cambio real, el crédito y los precios de la vivienda. Para cada una de ellas se calcularon desviaciones sobre sus medidas de largo plazo y a partir de su componente principal se construyó un Índice de Desbalance Macroeconómico (IDM). El IDM para Colombia, al igual que un índice similar para 10 países, mostró que en 21 episodios de crisis estudiados, se presentaron desbalances macroeconómicos y se observó una relación positiva entre el nivel acumulado del IDM y la probabilidad de crisis a un año.

Suggested Citation

  • Carolina Arteaga cabrales & Carlos Huertas Campos & Sergio Olarte Armenta, 2012. "Índice de Desbalance Macroeconómico," Borradores de Economia 744, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:744
    DOI: 10.32468/be.744
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    Cited by:

    1. Rhenals Monterrosa, Remberto & Gómez, Wilman, 2013. "La coyuntura macroeconómica reciente," Perfil de Coyuntura Económica, Universidad de Antioquia - CIE, issue 22, pages 9-38, July.
    2. Jhon Edwar Torres & Juan Pablo Cote, 2017. "Un nuevo cálculo de la tasa de cambio real de equilibrio para Colombia: Enfoque de Balance Macroeconómico," Borradores de Economia 1030, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Ana María Iregui B. & Luis Fernando Melo V. & María Teresa Ramírez G. & Carmen Cecilia Delgado R., 2013. "El efecto de la volatilidad y del desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio real sobre la actividad de las empresas en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 011106, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    4. Amador-Torres, J. Sebastián, 2017. "Finance-neutral potential output: An evaluation in an emerging market monetary policy context," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 389-407.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vulnerabilidad; cuenta corriente; tasa de cambio real; precio de la vivienda; crédito.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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