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El comportamiento del tipo de cambio real en Colombia: ¿Explicado por sus fundamentales?

Author

Listed:
  • Carolina Arteaga

    ()

  • Joan Camilo Granados

    ()

  • Jair Ojeda Joya

    ()

Abstract

En este trabajo estudiamos el comportamiento del tipo de cambio real (TCR) de Colombia con la ayuda de un modelo de cointegración que considera la interacción entre el TCR y un conjunto de determinantes macroeconómicos durante el periodo 1994-2012 con datos trimestrales. Estos fundamentales incluyen un nuevo indicador de productividad relativa el cual nos permite estimar el impacto del efecto Balassa-Samuelson sobre el TCR de Colombia. Esta metodología permite detectar los trimestres en los cuales el TCR se encuentra alejado de su relación de cointegración y por tanto, no está explicado por el comportamiento de sus fundamentales. Los resultados indican que la apreciación real observada desde finales de 2003 es explicada principalmente por el aumento en los términos de intercambio y en segundo lugar por el efecto Balassa-Samuelson. Adicionalmente, la dinámica del TCR se explica principalmente por el movimiento en los activos externos netos en el corto plazo y por el del consumo del gobierno en el mediano plazo.

Suggested Citation

  • Carolina Arteaga & Joan Camilo Granados & Jair Ojeda Joya, 2012. "El comportamiento del tipo de cambio real en Colombia: ¿Explicado por sus fundamentales?," Borradores de Economia 742, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:742
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Perron, Pierre & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2009. "Testing for Shifts in Trend With an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 369-396.
    2. Ronald MacDonald & Preethike Dias, 2007. "Behavioural equilibrium exchange rate estimates and implied exchange rate adjustments for ten countries," Working Papers 2007_12, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, March.
    4. Juan José Echavarría & Diego Vásquez & Mauricio Villamizar, 2005. "La tasa de cambio real en Colombia. ¿Muy lejos del equilibrio?," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 23(49), pages 134-191, December.
    5. Martha Misas & María Teresa Ramírez, 2006. "Colombian economic growth under Markov switching regimes with endogenous transition probabilities," Borradores de Economia 425, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carolina Arteaga cabrales & Carlos Huertas Campos & Sergio Olarte Armenta, 2012. "Índice de Desbalance Macroeconómico," Borradores de Economia 744, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Thomas Goda & Alejandro Torres García, 2015. "Flujos de capital, recursos naturales y enfermedad holandesa: el caso colombiano," Revista Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 33(78), pages 197-206, Diciembre.
    3. José Mauricio Gil León & Andrea Yaelt Lemus Vergara, 2012. "Efectos de la apertura comercial sobre la producción manufacturera en Colombia: una aproximación cuantitativa (1975-2007)," REVISTA APUNTES DEL CENES, UNIVERSIDAD PEDAGOGICA Y TECNOLOGICA DE COLOMBIA, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tipo de cambio real; efecto Balassa-Samuelson; Términos de intercambio; VEC; activos externos netos; desalineamiento Classification JEL:F31; F32; C32;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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