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El comportamiento del tipo de cambio real en Colombia: ¿explicado por sus fundamentales?

Author

Listed:
  • Carolina Arteaga
  • Joan Granados
  • Jair Ojeda

Abstract

En este trabajo, estudiamos el comportamiento del tipo de cambio real (TCR) de Colombia con la ayuda de un modelo de cointegración que considera la interacción entre el TCR y un conjunto de determinantes macroeconómicos durante el período 1994-2012 con datos trimestrales. Estos fundamentales incluyen un nuevo indicador de productividad relativa, el cual nos permite estimar el impacto del efecto Balassa-Samuelson sobre el TCR de Colombia. Esta metodología permite detectar los trimestres en los cuales el TCR se encuentra alejado de su relación de cointegración y por tanto, no está explicado por el comportamiento de sus fundamentales. Los resultados indican que la apreciación real observada desde finales de 2003 es explicada principalmente por el aumento en los términos de intercambio; en segundo lugar, por una proxy del efecto Balassa-Samuelson, y por factores con efectos de mediano plazo como el diferencial de tasas y el riesgo. Adicionalmente, la dinámica del TCR se explica sobre todo por el movimiento en los activos externos netos en el corto plazo y por el del consumo del Gobierno en el mediano plazo.

Suggested Citation

  • Carolina Arteaga & Joan Granados & Jair Ojeda, 2013. "El comportamiento del tipo de cambio real en Colombia: ¿explicado por sus fundamentales?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 31(72), pages 1-17, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:31:y:2013:i:72:p:1-17
    DOI: 10.32468/Espe.7201
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    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    2. Juan José Echavarría & Diego Vásquez & Mauricio Villamizar, 2005. "La tasa de cambio real en Colombia ¿Muy lejos del equilibrio?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 23(49), pages 134-191, December.
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    6. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arteaga Cabrales, Carolina & Huertas-Campos, Carlos Alfonso & Olarte Armenta, Sergio, 2013. "Índice de desbalance macroeconómico," Chapters, in: Rincón-Castro, Hernán & Velasco, Andrés M. (ed.), Flujos de capitales, choques externos y respuestas de política en países emergentes, chapter 8, pages 301-336, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Thomas Goda & Alejandro Torres García, 2015. "Flujos de capital, recursos naturales y enfermedad holandesa: el caso colombiano," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 33(78), pages 197-206, December.
    3. Oviedo Gómez, Andrés Felipe & Sierra, Lya Paola, 2019. "The importance of terms of trade in the Colombian economy," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    4. Alonso Cifuentes, Julio César & Jaramillo Flechas, Luis Eduardo, 2019. "Descomponiendo el Efecto del Gasto Público en la Tasa de Cambio Real: Una Aproximación al Caso Colombiano || Decomposing the Effect of Public Spending on the Real Exchange Rate: An Approximation to th," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 27(1), pages 91-114, June.
    5. José Mauricio Gil León & Andrea Yaelt Lemus Vergara, 2012. "Efectos de la apertura comercial sobre la producción manufacturera en Colombia: una aproximación cuantitativa (1975-2007)," Revista Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, December.
    6. Oviedo Gómez, Andrés Felipe & Sierra, Lya Paola, 2019. "Importancia de los términos de intercambio en la economía colombiana," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tipo de cambio real; Efecto Balassa-Samuelson; Terminos de Intercambio; VEC; Activos externos netos; Desalineamiento;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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