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La tasa de cambio real en Colombia. ¿Muy lejos del equilibrio?

  • Juan José Echavarría

    ()

  • Diego Vásquez

    ()

  • Mauricio Villamizar

    ()

En este trabajo se analizan, con base en un modelo VEC, los determinantes de corto y largo plazos de la tasa de cambio real en Colombia en el período 1958-2005, la cual depende en el corto y largo plazos de los activos externos netos del país, de las productividades relativas en Colombia y en el exterior (el llamado efecto Balassa-Samuelson), de los términos de intercambio y del gasto público. El efecto de la tasa de cambio nominal sobre la real persiste durante varios años, pero desaparece en el largo plazo. El trabajo también compara la tasa de cambio actual con las predicciones de largo plazo y concluye que la desalineación presente es relativamente reducida. Ello significa que solo podrá elevarse la tasa de cambio real con una reducción sustancial del gasto público y de la deuda externa, y que poco puede hacer el Banco Central para modificarla.

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Article provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE in its journal ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA.

Volume (Year): (2005)
Issue (Month): ()
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Handle: RePEc:col:000107:007514
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