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La tasa de cambio real en Colombia. ¿Muy lejos del equilibrio?

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  • Juan José Echavarría

    ()

  • Diego Vásquez

    ()

  • Mauricio Villamizar

    ()

Abstract

En este trabajo se analizan, con base en un modelo VEC, los determinantes de corto y largo plazos de la tasa de cambio real en Colombia en el período 1958-2005, la cual depende en el corto y largo plazos de los activos externos netos del país, de las productividades relativas en Colombia y en el exterior (el llamado efecto Balassa-Samuelson), de los términos de intercambio y del gasto público. El efecto de la tasa de cambio nominal sobre la real persiste durante varios años, pero desaparece en el largo plazo. El trabajo también compara la tasa de cambio actual con las predicciones de largo plazo y concluye que la desalineación presente es relativamente reducida. Ello significa que solo podrá elevarse la tasa de cambio real con una reducción sustancial del gasto público y de la deuda externa, y que poco puede hacer el Banco Central para modificarla.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan José Echavarría & Diego Vásquez & Mauricio Villamizar, 2005. "La tasa de cambio real en Colombia. ¿Muy lejos del equilibrio?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 23(49), pages 134-191, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:007514
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas, 2007. "La Tasa de Cambio Real de Equilibrio en Colombia y su Desalineamiento: Estimación a través de un modelo SVEC," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004389, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    2. Jesús Ferreyra & Jorge Salas, 2006. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Peru: BEER Models and Confidence Band Building," Working Papers 2006-006, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    3. Leonardo Villar & Pilar Esguerra, 2005. "Comercio Exterior Colombiano En El Siglo Xx," Borradores de Economia 358, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López E. & Martha Misas A., 2008. "Desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio, destorcidas de cuenta corriente y ataques especulativos en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Colombia; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 06/401, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Alfredo Bateman y Javier E. Martinez & Javier Esteban Martinez, 2010. "Cuaderno 4: Análisis de las fuentes de oferta y demanda en el mercado de divisas," Cuadernos de Desarrollo Económico 007586, Secretaría Distrital de Desarrollo Económico.
    7. Jair Ojeda Joya & Joan Granados & Carolina Arteaga, 2013. "El comportamiento del tipo de cambio real en Colombia: ¿explicado por sus fundamentales?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 31(72), pages 1-17, December.
    8. Gloria Alonso Masmela & Juan Nicólas Hernández & José David Pulido & Martha Lucía Villa, 2008. "Medidas Alternativas De Tasa De Cambio Real Para Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004679, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    9. Orlando Lorduy Herrera, 2015. "La paridad del poder adquisitivo: nueva evidencia para Colombia y Latinoamérica," Revista CIFE, Universidad Santo Tomás, February.
    10. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango, 2008. "El tipo de cambio real de equilibrio en Colombia y su desalineamiento: estimación a través de un modelo SVEC," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 365-395, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    11. Eduardo Wiesner, 2008. "The Political Economy of Macroeconomic Policy Reform in Latin America," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12913.
    12. Luis Alejandro Lee P & Angélica María Quiroga E., 2010. "Descomposición histórica de choques del tipo de cambio real en Colombia: un enfoque DSGE," Vniversitas Económica 008294, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    13. Eduardo Wiesner, 2011. "Colombia: la percepción de justicia distributiva y la demanda política por estabilidad macroeconómica," Documentos CEDE 008739, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tasa de cambio real; equilibrio; nivel de largo plazo; modelo decorrección de errores; cointegración; impulso-respuesta.;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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