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La tasa de cambio Real en Colombia. ¿Muy Lejos del Equilibrio?

  • Juan José Echavarría

    ()

  • Diego Vásquez

    ()

  • Mauricio Villamizar

    ()

La discusión sobre el comportamiento y los determinantes de la tasa de cambio ha resurgido en Colombia a raíz de la revaluación que tuvo lugar en 2004 (cercana a 12%, la mayor en la región) y la que ha tenido lugar en 2005. El sector privado en su conjunto ha manifestado honda preocupación ante lo sucedido, incluso con el apoyo de algunos grupos que podrían beneficiarse transitoriamente con la revaluación. En este trabajo se presenta la evolución de diferentes tasas de cambio, se consideran sus determinantes, con base en los cuales se explica la revaluación de 1991-97 y la posterior devaluación de 1997- 03. Luego de comparar nuestros resultados con los de otros trabajos sobre Colombia, la Sección final discute cuán lejos del equilibrio se encuentra la tasa de cambio actual. Se define la tasa de cambio de equilibrio o de largo plazo como aquella que resulta al remover los elementos especulativos (reflejo de disturbios en los mercados de activos) y cíclicos (dadas las rigideces en precios y salarios). Dicha tasa es compatible con una balanza de pagos sostenible en el largo plazo para un nivel dado de los fundamentos.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 337.

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