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La tasa de cambio Real en Colombia. ¿Muy Lejos del Equilibrio?

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Listed:
  • Juan José Echavarría
  • Diego Vásquez
  • Mauricio Villamizar

Abstract

La discusión sobre el comportamiento y los determinantes de la tasa de cambio ha resurgido en Colombia a raíz de la revaluación que tuvo lugar en 2004 (cercana a 12%, la mayor en la región) y la que ha tenido lugar en 2005. El sector privado en su conjunto ha manifestado honda preocupación ante lo sucedido, incluso con el apoyo de algunos grupos que podrían beneficiarse transitoriamente con la revaluación. En este trabajo se presenta la evolución de diferentes tasas de cambio, se consideran sus determinantes, con base en los cuales se explica la revaluación de 1991-97 y la posterior devaluación de 1997- 03. Luego de comparar nuestros resultados con los de otros trabajos sobre Colombia, la Sección final discute cuán lejos del equilibrio se encuentra la tasa de cambio actual. Se define la tasa de cambio de equilibrio o de largo plazo como aquella que resulta al remover los elementos especulativos (reflejo de disturbios en los mercados de activos) y cíclicos (dadas las rigideces en precios y salarios). Dicha tasa es compatible con una balanza de pagos sostenible en el largo plazo para un nivel dado de los fundamentos.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan José Echavarría & Diego Vásquez & Mauricio Villamizar, 2005. "La tasa de cambio Real en Colombia. ¿Muy Lejos del Equilibrio?," Borradores de Economia 337, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:337
    DOI: 10.32468/be.337
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    1. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango, 2008. "La tasa de cambio real de equilibrio en Colombia y su desalineamiento: estimación a través de un modelo SVEC," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 26(57), pages 282-319, December.
    2. Jesús Ferreyra & Jorge Salas, 2006. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Peru: BEER Models and Confidence Band Building," Working Papers 2006-006, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    3. Leonardo Villar & Pilar Esguerra, 2005. "Comercio Exterior Colombiano En El Siglo Xx," Borradores de Economia 358, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López E. & Martha Misas A., 2008. "Desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio, destorcidas de cuenta corriente y ataques especulativos en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Colombia; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 06/401, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Alfredo Bateman y Javier E. Martinez & Javier Esteban Martinez, 2010. "Cuaderno 4: Análisis de las fuentes de oferta y demanda en el mercado de divisas," Cuadernos de Desarrollo Económico 007586, Secretaría Distrital de Desarrollo Económico.
    7. Jair Ojeda Joya & Joan Granados & Carolina Arteaga, 2013. "El comportamiento del tipo de cambio real en Colombia: ¿explicado por sus fundamentales?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 31(72), pages 1-17, December.
    8. Gloria Alonso Masmela & Juan Nicólas Hernández & José David Pulido & Martha Lucía Villa, 2008. "Medidas Alternativas De Tasa De Cambio Real Para Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004679, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    9. Alonso Cifuentes, Julio César & Jaramillo Flechas, Luis Eduardo, 2019. "Descomponiendo el Efecto del Gasto Público en la Tasa de Cambio Real: Una Aproximación al Caso Colombiano || Decomposing the Effect of Public Spending on the Real Exchange Rate: An Approximation to th," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 27(1), pages 91-114, June.
    10. Orlando Lorduy Herrera, 2015. "La paridad del poder adquisitivo: nueva evidencia para Colombia y Latinoamérica," Revista CIFE, Universidad Santo Tomás, February.
    11. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango, 2008. "El tipo de cambio real de equilibrio en Colombia y su desalineamiento: estimación a través de un modelo SVEC," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 365-395, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    12. Eduardo Wiesner, 2008. "The Political Economy of Macroeconomic Policy Reform in Latin America," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12913.
    13. Luis Alejandro Lee P & Angélica María Quiroga E., 2010. "Descomposición histórica de choques del tipo de cambio real en Colombia: un enfoque DSGE," Vniversitas Económica 008294, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    14. Eduardo Wiesner, 2011. "Colombia: la percepción de justicia distributiva y la demanda política por estabilidad macroeconómica," Documentos CEDE 008739, Universidad de los Andes – Facultad de Economía – CEDE.

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    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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