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Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Azerbaijan

Author

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  • Hasanov, Fakhri
  • Huseynov, Fariz

Abstract

By using quarterly data from 2001-2007 and applying various approaches, we estimate real equilibrium exchange rate misalignment for Azerbaijani Manat (AZN) and find that AZN is slightly overvalued. Purchasing power parity approach does not explain the equilibrium exchange rate. However using behavioral and permanent equilibrium exchange rate approaches, we find that the relative productivity, terms of trade, trade openness, net foreign assets, government expenditures and oil prices are the main determinants of misalignment.

Suggested Citation

  • Hasanov, Fakhri & Huseynov, Fariz, 2009. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 29561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29561
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29561/1/MPRA_paper_29561.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Panagiotis Liargovas, 1999. "An Assessment of Real Exchange Rate Movements in the Transition Economies of Central and Eastern Europe," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 299-318.
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    3. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Clark, Peter B. & MacDonald, Ronald, 2004. "Filtering the BEER: A permanent and transitory decomposition," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 29-56.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    6. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    7. Balazs Egert & Amina Lahr├Ęche-Revil, 2003. "Estimating the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate of Central and Eastern European Countries; The EMU Enlargement Perspective," Working Papers 2003-05, CEPII research center.
    8. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
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    12. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
    13. Ronald MacDonald & Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals; A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hasanov, Fakhri & Huseynov, Fariz, 2013. "Bank credits and non-oil economic growth: Evidence from Azerbaijan," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 597-610.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange rate; Misalignment; Azerbaijan; Manat;

    JEL classification:

    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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