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Behavioral and Permanent Zloty/Euro Equilibrium

  • Joanna Bęza-Bojanowska


    (National Bank of Poland)

Poland is expected to enter the Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II). The European Central Bank recommends that the ERM II central rate should reflect the best possible assessment of the equilibrium exchange rate. Since the equilibrium rate is changing in time, it is important to identify the pushing and pulling forces of the exchange rate. This knowledge will let the authorities to defend only the exchange rate that is in equilibrium and to assess outcomes of their actions. We use the VEC approach of Johansen to estimate the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate and to identify the pushing forces of the Polish zloty/euro rate. We apply the Gonzalo-Granger decomposition to calculate the permanent equilibrium exchange rate and to identify the pulling forces of the zloty exchange rate. We demonstrate that this approach may be useful for Polish authorities while entering the ERM II as well as within that mechanism.

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Article provided by CEJEME in its journal Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 1 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 35-55

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Handle: RePEc:psc:journl:v:1:y:2009:i:1:p:35-55
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  2. Greenslade, Jennifer V. & Hall, Stephen G. & Henry, S. G. Brian, 2002. "On the identification of cointegrated systems in small samples: a modelling strategy with an application to UK wages and prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1517-1537, August.
  3. Balázs Égert & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2004. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Transition: The Tradable Price-Based Real Appreciation and Estimation Uncertainty," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-676, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  4. Joanna Beza-Bojanowska, 2009. "The Behavioural Zloty/Euro Equilibrium Exchange Rate," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 55, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
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  10. Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C., 1992. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Papers 4, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  11. Soren Johansen, 2002. "A Small Sample Correction for the Test of Cointegrating Rank in the Vector Autoregressive Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1929-1961, September.
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