Behavioral and Permanent Zloty/Euro Equilibrium
Poland is expected to enter the Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II). The European Central Bank recommends that the ERM II central rate should reflect the best possible assessment of the equilibrium exchange rate. Since the equilibrium rate is changing in time, it is important to identify the pushing and pulling forces of the exchange rate. This knowledge will let the authorities to defend only the exchange rate that is in equilibrium and to assess outcomes of their actions. We use the VEC approach of Johansen to estimate the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate and to identify the pushing forces of the Polish zloty/euro rate. We apply the Gonzalo-Granger decomposition to calculate the permanent equilibrium exchange rate and to identify the pulling forces of the zloty exchange rate. We demonstrate that this approach may be useful for Polish authorities while entering the ERM II as well as within that mechanism.
Volume (Year): 1 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://cejeme.org/|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
- Greenslade, Jennifer V. & Hall, Stephen G. & Henry, S. G. Brian, 2002. "On the identification of cointegrated systems in small samples: a modelling strategy with an application to UK wages and prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1517-1537, August.
- Balázs Égert & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2004.
"Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Transition: The Tradable Price-Based Real Appreciation and Estimation Uncertainty,"
William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series
2004-676, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Égert, Balázs & Lommatzsch, Kirsten, 2004. "Equilibrium exchange rates in the transition: The tradable price-based real appreciation and estimation uncertainty," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Joanna Beza-Bojanowska, 2009.
"The Behavioural Zloty/Euro Equilibrium Exchange Rate,"
National Bank of Poland Working Papers
55, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
- Joanna Beza-Bojanowska & Ronald MacDonald, 2009. "The Behavioural Zloty/Euro Equilibrium Exchange Rate," CESifo Working Paper Series 2568, CESifo Group Munich.
- Jun Nagayasu & Ronald MacDonald, 1999.
"The Long-Run Relationship Between Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rate Differentials: A Panel Study,"
IMF Working Papers
99/37, International Monetary Fund.
- Ronald MacDonald & Jun Nagayasu, 2000. "The Long-Run Relationship Between Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rate Differentials: A Panel Study," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(1), pages 5.
- Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
- Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
- Clark, Peter B. & MacDonald, Ronald, 2004.
"Filtering the BEER: A permanent and transitory decomposition,"
Global Finance Journal,
Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 29-56.
- Peter B. Clark & Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "Filtering the Beer: A Permanent and Transitory Decomposition," IMF Working Papers 00/144, International Monetary Fund.
- Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2001.
"Determinants of the euro real effective exchange rate: a BEER/PEER approach,"
Working Paper Series
0085, European Central Bank.
- Francisco Maeso-Fernandez & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2002. "Determinants of the Euro Real Effective Exchange Rate: A BEER/PEER Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 437-461, December.
- Francisco Maeso-Fernandez & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2001. "Determinants of the euro real effective exchange rate: a BEER/PEER approach," International Finance 0111003, EconWPA.
- Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C., 1992.
"Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems,"
4, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
- Soren Johansen, 2002. "A Small Sample Correction for the Test of Cointegrating Rank in the Vector Autoregressive Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1929-1961, September.
- MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates: An Overview," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:psc:journl:v:1:y:2009:i:1:p:35-55. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Krzysztof Osiewalski)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.