Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: An Application of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Nigeria
This paper seeks to estimate the long run behavioral equilibrium exchange rate in Nigeria. The empirical analysis builds on quarterly data from 1986Q1 to 2006Q4 and derives a Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) and a Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER). The econometric analysis starts by analyzing the stochastic properties of the data and found all the variables stationary at first level of differencing. Accordingly, the paper proceeds by estimating vector-error correction models. Regression results show that most of the long-run behavior of the real exchange rate could be explained by real net foreign assets, terms of trade, index of crude oil volatility, index of monetary policy performance and government fiscal stance. On the basis of these fundamentals, four episodes each of overvaluation and undervaluation were identified and the antecedents characterizing the episodes were equally traced to the archive of exchange rate management in the country within the review period. Among others for instance, large inflow of oil revenues into the country and stable macroeconomic performance were discovered to account for undervaluation of the real exchange rate between 2001Q1 and 2006Q4 in Nigeria. The results further suggest that deviations from the equilibrium path are eliminated within one to two years. The paper recommends the pursuance of sound monetary policy as an instrument for achieving real exchange rate cum macroeconomic stability in Nigeria.
|Date of creation:||09 Sep 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Baffes, John & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & O'Connell, Stephen A., 1997. "Single-equation estimation of the equilibrium real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1800, The World Bank.
- Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995.
"Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
- Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C., 1992. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Papers 4, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Gonzalo and Granger JBES 1995 paper," Statistical Software Components RTZ00074, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Dibooglu, Selahattin, 1996.
"Real disturbances, relative prices and purchasing power parity,"
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 69-87.
- Selahattin Dibooglu, 1995. "Real Disturbances, Relative Prices, and Purchasing Power Parity," International Finance 9502002, EconWPA.
- Peter B. Clark & Ronald MacDonald, 2000.
"Filtering the Beer; A Permanent and Transitory Decomposition,"
IMF Working Papers
00/144, International Monetary Fund.
- Clark, Peter B. & MacDonald, Ronald, 2004. "Filtering the BEER: A permanent and transitory decomposition," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 29-56.
- qayyum, Abdul & Khan, Arshad & Zaman, Kair-u, 2004. "Exchange Rate Misalignment in Pakistan: Evidence from Purchasing Power Parity Theory," MPRA Paper 2148, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2004.
- Etienne B Yehoue & Gilles J. DufrÃ©not, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment; A Panel Co-Integration and Common Factor Analysis," IMF Working Papers 05/164, International Monetary Fund.
- Elena Loukoianova & Plamen K Iossifov, 2007. "Estimation of a Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model for Ghana," IMF Working Papers 07/155, International Monetary Fund.
- Ibrahim A. Elbadawi & Raimundo Soto, .
"Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Sub-Sahara Africa and Other Developing Countries,"
ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers
inv093, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
- Elbadawi, Ibrahim A & Soto, Raimundo, 1997. "Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Sub-Saharan Africa and Other Developing Countries," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 6(3), pages 74-120, Supplemen.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Ronald MacDonald, 1997. "What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of it," IMF Working Papers 97/21, International Monetary Fund.
- Atsushi Iimi, 2006. "Exchange Rate Misalignment; An Application of the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Botswana," IMF Working Papers 06/140, International Monetary Fund.
- Ronald Macdonald, 1995.
"Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling: A Survey of the Recent Evidence,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(3), pages 437-489, September.
- Ronald MacDonald, 1995. "Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling; A Survey of the Recent Evidence," IMF Working Papers 95/14, International Monetary Fund.
- Hoffmann, Mathias & MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "A real differential view of equilibrium real exchange rates and misalignments," CFS Working Paper Series 2000/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Clostermann, Jörg & Schnatz, Bernd, 2000. "The determinants of the euro-dollar exchange rate: synthetic fundamentals and a non-existing currency," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Mollick, Andre Varella, 1999. "The real exchange rate in Brazil Mean reversion or random walk in the long run?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 115-126, January.
- Francisco Maeso-Fernandez & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2001.
"Determinants of the euro real effective exchange rate: a BEER/PEER approach,"
- Francisco Maeso-Fernandez & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2002. "Determinants of the Euro Real Effective Exchange Rate: A BEER/PEER Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 437-461, December.
- Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2001. "Determinants of the euro real effective exchange rate: a BEER/PEER approach," Working Paper Series 0085, European Central Bank.
- Liew, Venus Khim-sen & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Chong, Terence Tai-leung, 2004.
"Are Asian real exchange rates stationary?,"
Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 313-316, June.
- Hoffmann, M. & MacDonald, R., 2001. "A real differential view of equilibrium real exchange rate," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0103, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
- MacDonald, Ronald, 1997.
"On the Japanese Yen-US Dollar Exchange Rate: A Structural Econometric Model Based on Real Interest Differentials,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1639, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- MacDonald, Ronald & Nagayasu, Jun, 1998. "On the Japanese Yen-U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: A Structural Econometric Model Based on Real Interest Differentials," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 75-102, March.
- Caballero, Ricardo J. & Corbo, Vittorio, 1989. "How does uncertainty about the real exchange rate affect exports?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 221, The World Bank.
- Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
- Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1993. "Purchasing power parity based on effective exchange rate and cointegration: 25 LDCs' experience with its absolute formulation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1023-1031, June.
- Ronald MacDonald & Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals; A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
- Amano, R. A. & van Norden, S., 1998.
"Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 299-316, April.
- Robert A. Amano & Simon van Norden, 1995. "Oil Prices and the Rise and Fall of the U.S. Real Exchange Rate," International Finance 9502001, EconWPA.
- Peter R. Winters, 1960. "Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 324-342, April.
- Ronald MacDonald & Luca A Ricci, 2003.
"Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa,"
IMF Working Papers
03/44, International Monetary Fund.
- Ronald Macdonald & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2004. "Estimation Of The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate For South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 72(2), pages 282-304, 06.
- repec:pid:journl:v:43:y:2004:i:4:p:721-735 is not listed on IDEAS
- Johan Mathisen, 2003. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Malawi," IMF Working Papers 03/104, International Monetary Fund.
- Azali, M. & Habibullah, M. S. & Baharumshah, A. Z., 2001. "Does PPP hold between Asian and Japanese economies? Evidence using panel unit root and panel cointegration," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 35-50, January.
- Rodrik, Dani, 1994. "King Kong Meets Godzilla: The World Bank and The East Asian Miracle," CEPR Discussion Papers 944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- MacDonald, Ronald, 1999. "Exchange Rate Behaviour: Are Fundamentals Important?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages F673-91, November.
- Devarajan, Shantayanan, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in the CFA Zone," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 6(1), pages 35-53, March.
- Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
- Ghura, Dhaneshwar & Grennes, Thomas J., 1993. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-174, October.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Susana Garcia Cervero & J. Humberto Lopez & Enrique Alberola Ila & Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates; Euro, Dollar, â€œIns,â€ â€œOuts,â€ and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," IMF Working Papers 99/175, International Monetary Fund.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17.
- Taufiq Choudhry, 2005. "Asian Currency Crisis and the Generalized PPP: Evidence from the Far East," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 137-157, 06.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10376. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.