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Revisiting the Dollar-Euro Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate: Evidence from Multivariate Unobserved Components Models

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  • Xiaoshan Chen
  • Ronald MacDonald

Abstract

We propose an alterative approach to obtaining a permanent equilibrium exchange rate (PEER), based on an unobserved components (UC) model. This approach offers a number of advantages over the conventional cointegration-based PEER. Firstly, we do not rely on the prerequisite that cointegration has to be found between the real exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals to obtain non-spurious long-run relationships and the PEER. Secondly, the impact that the permanent and transitory components of the macroeconomic fundamentals have on the real exchange rate can be modelled separately in the UC model. This is important for variables, where the long and short-run effects may drive the real exchange rate in opposite directions, such as the relative government expenditure ratio.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoshan Chen & Ronald MacDonald, 2010. "Revisiting the Dollar-Euro Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate: Evidence from Multivariate Unobserved Components Models," Working Papers 2010_16, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  • Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2010_16
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    Cited by:

    1. Emerson Fernandes Marçal & Priscila Fernandes Ribeiro, 2011. "Levado pelos Fundamentos? Estimando o Desalinhamento Cambial Norte-Americano a partir de Técnicas de Cointegração," Discussion Papers 1674, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    2. Imre Vámos & Zsuzsanna Novák, 2015. "Four currencies outside the eurozone," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 8(3), pages 97-108, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate; Unobserved Components Model; Exchange rate forecasting.;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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