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Real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials: A present value interpretation

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  • Hoffmann, Mathias
  • MacDonald, Ronald

Abstract

Although the real exchange rate-real interest rate (RERI) relationship is central to most open economy macroeconomic models, empirical support for the relationship is generally found to be rather weak. In this paper we re-investigate the RERI relationship using bilateral US real exchange rate data spanning the period 1978-2007. Instead of testing one particular model, we build on Campbell and Shiller [1987. Cointegration tests of present-value models. Journal of Political Economy 95, 1062-1088] to propose a metric of the economic significance of the relationship. Our empirical results provide robust evidence that the RERI link is economically significant and that the real interest rate differential is a reasonable approximation of the expected rate of depreciation over longer horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoffmann, Mathias & MacDonald, Ronald, 2009. "Real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials: A present value interpretation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 952-970, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:53:y:2009:i:8:p:952-970
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2014. "Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-05, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    2. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2017. "Exchange rate undervaluation and R&D activity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 148-160.
    3. repec:eee:pacfin:v:46:y:2017:i:pb:p:337-354 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Li, Kui-Wai & Wong, Douglas K T, 2011. "The Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Differential Relationship: Evidence from Two Financial Crises," MPRA Paper 35297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Xiaoshan Chen & Ronald MacDonald, 2010. "Revisiting the Dollar-Euro Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate: Evidence from Multivariate Unobserved Components Models," Working Papers 2010_16, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    6. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2015. "Revisiting the relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-22.
    7. repec:eee:ecmode:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:261-274 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2014. "Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-05, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    9. Abla El Khawaga & Mona Esam & Rasha Hammam, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Rates: An Empirical Investigation of International Fisher Effect Theory The Case of Egypt (2003-2012)," Working Papers 869, Economic Research Forum, revised Nov 2014.
    10. Alin OPREANA & Simona VINEREAN, 2015. "Analysis of the Economic Research Context after the Outbreak of the Economic Crisis of 2007-2009," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 3(1), pages 77-92.
    11. Leleng KEBALO, 2016. "South African Exchange Rate After 2000s: An Econometric Investigation," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 459-481, September.
    12. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2015. "Measuring the dollar–euro permanent equilibrium exchange rate using the unobserved components model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 20-35.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange rates Real interest rates Present-value model;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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