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La tasa de cambio real en Colombia ¿Muy lejos del equilibrio?

Author

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  • Juan José Echavarría

    ()

  • Diego Vásquez

    ()

  • Mauricio Villamiza

    ()

Abstract

En este trabajo se analizan, con base en un modelo VEC, los determinantes de corto y largo plazos de la tasa de cambio real en Colombia en el período 1958-2005, la cual depende en el corto y largo plazos de los activos externos netos del país, de las productividades relativas en Colombia y en el exterior (el llamado efecto Balassa-Samuelson), de los términos de intercambio y del gasto público. El efecto de la tasa de cambio nominal sobre la real persiste durante varios años, pero desaparece en el largo plazo. El trabajo también compara la tasa de cambio actual con las predicciones de largo plazo y concluye que la desalineación presente es relativamente reducida. Ello significa que solo podrá elevarse la tasa de cambio real con una reducción sustancial del gasto público y de la deuda externa, y que poco puede hacer el Banco Central para modificarla.Classification-JEL: C10, C32, F31.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan José Echavarría & Diego Vásquez & Mauricio Villamiza, 2005. "La tasa de cambio real en Colombia ¿Muy lejos del equilibrio?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 23(49), pages 134-191, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:23:y:2005:i:49:p:134-191
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    2. Bofinger, Peter, 2001. "Monetary Policy: Goals, Institutions, Strategies, and Instruments," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199248568.
    3. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Targeting the real exchange rate: theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 97-133, June.
    4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
    5. Andrés Felipe Arias & Hernando Zuleta, 1997. "Tasa de Cambio Real e Inversión. La Experiencia de 1990-1996," Borradores de Economia 076, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
    7. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jesús Ferreyra & Jorge Salas, 2006. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Peru: BEER Models and Confidence Band Building," Working Papers 2006-006, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Colombia; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 06/401, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Leonardo Villar & Pilar Esguerra, 2005. "Comercio Exterior Colombiano En El Siglo Xx," Borradores de Economia 358, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Orlando Lorduy Herrera, 2015. "La paridad del poder adquisitivo: nueva evidencia para Colombia y Latinoamérica," Revista CIFE, Universidad Santo Tomás, February.
    5. Luis Alejandro Lee P & Angélica María Quiroga E., 2010. "Descomposición histórica de choques del tipo de cambio real en Colombia: un enfoque DSGE," Vniversitas Económica 008294, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tasa de cambio real; equilibrio; nivel de largo plazo; modelo de corrección de errores; cointegración; impulso-respuesta.;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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