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Desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio, destorcidas de cuenta corriente y ataques especulativos en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Juan José Echavarría
  • Enrique L�pez E.
  • Martha Misas A.

Abstract

"En este trabajo se evalúa el patrón del desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio real, con base en la metodología Markov-Switching. Se encuentran dos estados de la naturaleza que acá se denominan como "equilibrio" y "sobre-revaluación". Se construyen índices de "ataques especulativos" y de destorcidas en cuenta corriente y se muestra que en general éstos se presentan durante o un poco después de la sobre-revaluación cambiaria. Se concluye que el concepto y la medición del desequilibrio poseen claras implicaciones normativas en Colombia, pues los períodos de sobre-revaluación están asociados, entre otros, con ataques especulativos, bajos niveles de crecimiento y alto desempleo." Abstract: "This paper evaluates real exchange rate misalignment patterns, based on Markov-Switching methodology. Two dominant states of nature are found: "equilibrium" and "over-valuation ". Speculative attack and current account distortion indices are constructed, and we find that these are generally found during or shortly alter over-revaluation. We conclude that the concept and disequilibrium measurement have clear normative implications for Colombia, given that periods of over-revaluation are associated with, among others, speculative attacks, low levels of economic growth, and high unemployment."

Suggested Citation

  • Juan José Echavarría & Enrique L�pez E. & Martha Misas A., 2008. "Desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio, destorcidas de cuenta corriente y ataques especulativos en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000438:013335
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    Cited by:

    1. Gloria Alonso Masmela & Juan Nic�las Hern�ndez & Jos� David Pulido & Martha Luc�a Villa, 2008. "Medidas Alternativas De Tasa De Cambio Real Para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 4679, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Rafael Puyana Mart√≠nez-Villalba, 2011. "El efecto Balassa-Samuelson en Colombia," Documentos CEDE 7959, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    3. Rafael Puyana Martínez-Villaba, 2010. "El efecto Balassa-Samuelson en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 630, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Luz Mery Huertas Romero, Andrés Mauricio Pérez Vásquez Xiomara García Moreno, 2012. "Análisis Macroeconómico Comparativo Entre Colombia Y Los Paises Del Efta," Revista Isocuanta, Universidad Santo Tomás, vol. 0(0), pages 1-22.
    5. Rafael Puyana, 2010. "El efecto Balassa-Samuelson en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 7801, Banco de la Republica.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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