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Desalineamiento de la Tasa de Cambio, Destorcidas de Cuenta Corriente y Ataques Especulativos en Colombia

  • Juan José Echavarría


  • Enrique López Enciso


  • Martha Misas


En este trabajo se evalúa el patrón del desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio real, con base en la metodología Markov-Switching. Se encuentran dos estados de la naturaleza que acá se denominan como "equilibrio" y "sobre-revaluación. Se construyen índices de "ataques especulativos" y de destorcidas en cuenta corriente y se muestra que en general éstos se presentan durante o un poco después de la sobre-revaluación cambiaria. Los períodos de sobre-revaluación y de ataques están asociados (entre otros) con bajos niveles de crecimiento y alto desempleo en la economía. Ello significa que el concepto de tasa de cambio de equilibrio también conlleva implicaciones normativas; la tasa de cambio de equilibrio puede asociarse parcialmente con la tasa deseable y/o sostenible para el país.

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 004581.

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Length: 41
Date of creation: 27 Mar 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000094:004581
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