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Desalineamiento de la Tasa de Cambio, Destorcidas de Cuenta Corriente y Ataques Especulativos en Colombia

Author

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  • Juan José Echavarría
  • Enrique López Enciso
  • Martha Misas

Abstract

En este trabajo se evalúa el patrón del desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio real, con base en la metodología Markov-Switching. Se encuentran dos estados de la naturaleza que acá se denominan como "equilibrio" y "sobre-revaluación. Se construyen índices de "ataques especulativos" y de destorcidas en cuenta corriente y se muestra que en general éstos se presentan durante o un poco después de la sobre-revaluación cambiaria. Los períodos de sobre-revaluación y de ataques están asociados (entre otros) con bajos niveles de crecimiento y alto desempleo en la economía. Ello significa que el concepto de tasa de cambio de equilibrio también conlleva implicaciones normativas; la tasa de cambio de equilibrio puede asociarse parcialmente con la tasa deseable y/o sostenible para el país.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas, 2008. "Desalineamiento de la Tasa de Cambio, Destorcidas de Cuenta Corriente y Ataques Especulativos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 4581, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:004581
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gloria Alonso Masmela & Juan Nicólas Hernández & José David Pulido & Martha Lucía Villa, 2008. "Medidas Alternativas De Tasa De Cambio Real Para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 4679, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Rafael Puyana Martínez-Villaba, 2010. "El efecto Balassa-Samuelson en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 630, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Xiomara García Moreno, Luz Mery Huertas Romero, Andrés Mauricio Pérez Vásquez, 2012. "Análisis Macroeconómico Comparativo Entre Colombia Y Los Paises Del Efta," Revista Isocuanta 12350, Universidad Santo Tomás.
    4. Rafael Puyana, 2010. "El efecto Balassa-Samuelson en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 7801, Banco de la Republica.
    5. Rafael Puyana Martínez-Villalba, 2011. "El efecto Balassa-Samuelson en Colombia," Documentos CEDE 7959, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ataques especulativos; crecimiento económico; revaluación de la tasa de cambio; VEC estructural (SVEC).;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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