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Desalineamiento de la Tasa de Cambio, Destorcidas de Cuenta Corriente y Ataques Especulativos en Colombia

Author

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  • Juan José Echavarría

    ()

  • Enrique López Enciso

    ()

  • Martha Misas

    ()

Abstract

En este trabajo se evalúa el patrón del desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio real, con base en la metodología Markov-Switching. Se encuentran dos estados de la naturaleza que acá se denominan como "equilibrio" y "sobre-revaluación. Se construyen índices de "ataques especulativos" y de destorcidas en cuenta corriente y se muestra que en general éstos se presentan durante o un poco después de la sobre-revaluación cambiaria. Los períodos de sobre-revaluación y de ataques están asociados (entre otros) con bajos niveles de crecimiento y alto desempleo en la economía. Ello significa que el concepto de tasa de cambio de equilibrio también conlleva implicaciones normativas; la tasa de cambio de equilibrio puede asociarse parcialmente con la tasa deseable y/o sostenible para el país.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas, 2008. "Desalineamiento de la Tasa de Cambio, Destorcidas de Cuenta Corriente y Ataques Especulativos en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004581, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:004581
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rafael Puyana Martínez-Villalba, 2011. "El efecto Balassa-Samuelson en Colombia," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 007959, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
    2. Rafael Puyana Martínez-Villaba, 2010. "El efecto Balassa-Samuelson en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 630, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Rafael Puyana, 2010. "El efecto Balassa-Samuelson en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 007801, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ataques especulativos; crecimiento económico; revaluación de la tasa de cambio; VEC estructural (SVEC).;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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