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La Tasa de Cambio Real de Equilibrio en Colombia y su Desalineamiento: Estimación a través de un modelo SVEC

Author

Listed:
  • Juan José Echavarría
  • Enrique López Enciso
  • Martha Misas Arango

Abstract

En este documento se calcula la tasa de cambio real de equilibrio y su desalineamiento. Este último entendido como la diferencia entre la tasa real de cambio observada y la tasa de equilibrio. Para llevar a cabo este ejercicio se utiliza el enfoque de tendencias comunes asociadas a un modelo VEC estructural (SVEC). El ejercicio, llevado a cabo para el período 1962-2005, indica que la tasa real de cambio ha estado sobrevaluada principalmente entre 1962 y 1974, en 1983-1985 y en 1995-1997. Los resultados sugieren que la tasa de cambio real no ha estado lejos del equilibrio en los años recientes.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango, 2007. "La Tasa de Cambio Real de Equilibrio en Colombia y su Desalineamiento: Estimación a través de un modelo SVEC," Borradores de Economia 472, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:472
    DOI: 10.32468/be.472
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan J. Echavarría & Luis F. Melo-Velandia & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2018. "The impact of pre-announced day-to-day interventions on the Colombian exchange rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1319-1336, November.
    2. Juan José Echavarría & Andrés González, 2012. "Choques internacionales reales y financieros y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 30(69), pages 14-66, December.
    3. Carolina Arteaga & Roderick Luna & Jair Ojeda-Joya, 2011. "Normas de cuenta corriente y tasa de cambio real de equilibrio en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 681, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Rafael Puyana, 2010. "El efecto Balassa-Samuelson en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 007801, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    5. Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López E. & Martha Misas A., 2008. "Desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio, destorcidas de cuenta corriente y ataques especulativos en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
    6. Thomas Goda & Alejandro Torres García, 2015. "Flujos de capital, recursos naturales y enfermedad holandesa: el caso colombiano," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 33(78), pages 197-206, December.
    7. Alonso Cifuentes, Julio César & Jaramillo Flechas, Luis Eduardo, 2019. "Descomponiendo el Efecto del Gasto Público en la Tasa de Cambio Real: Una Aproximación al Caso Colombiano || Decomposing the Effect of Public Spending on the Real Exchange Rate: An Approximation to th," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 27(1), pages 91-114, June.
    8. Thomas Goda & Alejandro Torres, 2013. "Overvaluation of the real exchange rate and the Dutch Disease: the Colombian case," Documentos de Trabajo CIEF 010930, Universidad EAFIT.
    9. Juan Pablo Cote-Barón & Deicy J. Cristiano-Botia & María Alejandra Hernández-Montes, 2021. "Un nuevo índice de tasa de cambio real para Colombia: ajuste por competencia en terceros mercados," Borradores de Economia 1188, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Thomas Goda & Alejandro Torres, 2013. "Tasa de cambio real y recomposición sectorial en Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo CIEF 010936, Universidad EAFIT.
    11. Rafael Puyana Martínez-Villalba, 2011. "El efecto Balassa-Samuelson en Colombia," Documentos CEDE 007959, Universidad de los Andes – Facultad de Economía – CEDE.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tasa real de cambio de equilibrio; desalineamiento; modelo VEC estructural.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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