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Normas de cuenta corriente y tasa de cambio real de equilibrio en Colombia

  • Carolina Arteaga

    ()

  • Roderick Luna

    ()

  • Jair Ojeda-Joya

    ()

En este artículo estudiamos la estimación de un nivel de equilibrio de la cuenta corriente de la balanza de pagos de Colombia y sus posibles implicaciones para el desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio real. Se siguen dos metodologías alternativas para la estimación. Primero, se realiza una estimación a partir de los determinantes de largo plazo en países emergentes siguiendo a Chinn y Prasad (2003). Segundo, se estima un modelo basado en la teoría del suavizamiento de consumo siguiendo a Ghosh y Ostry (1995). Las implicaciones sobre la tasa de cambio real se basan en el enfoque del balance macroeconómico. Los resultados indican que a fin de 2010 el déficit observado en la cuenta corriente es superior a su nivel de equilibrio. No obstante, encontramos que este resultado corresponde a fluctuaciones cíclicas ya que el componente tendencial de la cuenta corriente es similar a su nivel de equilibrio. Por tanto, el desalineamiento estimado para la tasa de cambio real a fin de 2010 no es significativo estadísticamente.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 681.

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Length: 33
Date of creation: Nov 2011
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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:681
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  1. Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2001. "Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: Evidence from a small post-Bretton woods panel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 29-52, February.
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  8. William R. Cline & John Williamson, 2009. "2009 Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Policy Briefs PB09-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  9. Ghosh, Atish R & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1995. "The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(2), pages 305-33, May.
  10. Bussière, Matthieu & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2010. "Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates," Working Paper Series 1151, European Central Bank.
  11. Nabil Aflouk & Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2010. "Exchange Rate Misalignments and International Imbalances a FEER Approach for Emerging Countries," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 124, pages 31-74.
  12. Rodrigo Caputo G. & Marco Núñez N. & Rodrigo Valdés P., 2008. "Análisis del tipo de cambio en la práctica," Investigación Conjunta - español, in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 313-364 Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
  13. Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Equilibrium Exchange Rates in East Asia," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 1161-1182.
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