IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/1061.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Episodios de deterioro de la cuenta corriente en Colombia: factores externos, cíclicos y estructurales

Author

Listed:
  • Jair N. Ojeda-Joya

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

Abstract

Se estiman regresiones cointegradas para detectar los principales determinantes de la cuenta corriente en Colombia, en el periodo 1986-2017, a partir de un conjunto de 17 indicadores macroeconómicos externos e internos. El modelo estimado se utiliza para analizar dos episodios de deterioro gradual y persistente del balance externo: 1987-1998 y 2000-2015. Este ejercicio permite estudiar comparativamente ambos periodos considerando sus diferentes coyunturas e institucionalidad de política económica. Los resultados indican que, en ambos episodios, los determinantes cíclicos fueron los que tuvieron una mayor contribución al aumento del déficit. El factor más importante en el primer periodo es el mayor acceso del sector privado al financiamiento externo. En el periodo más reciente, los determinantes más relevantes son el ciclo de crédito bancario y precio real de la vivienda los cuales son indicadores del ciclo financiero. Por su parte, la brecha del producto, como indicador del ciclo económico, tuvo un rol modesto en ambos episodios de deterioro. Cabe destacar que las mejoras de factores estructurales de Colombia desde el año 2000, evitaron un deterioro más pronunciado de la cuenta corriente en 2015. **** ABSTRACT: We estimate cointegrating regressions to detect the main determinants of the current account in Colombia, during the period 1986-2017, starting with a set of 17 external and internal macroeconomic indicators. We use the estimated model to analyze two episodes of gradual and persistent deterioration of the external balance: 1987-1998 and 2000-2015. This exercise allows a comparative study of both periods considering their different macroeconomic outlooks and policy institutions. Our results show that, in both episodes, cyclical determinants have the largest contribution to the increased deficit. The most important factor in the first period is the improved access to international finance by the private sector. In the most recent period, the most relevant determinants are banking credit and real house prices, both of which are financial cycle indicators. On the other hand, the output gap, the business cycle indicator, had a modest role during both deterioration episodes. It is worth highlighting that the improvement of structural factors since 2000, prevented a more pronounced current account deterioration in 2015.

Suggested Citation

  • Jair N. Ojeda-Joya, 2019. "Episodios de deterioro de la cuenta corriente en Colombia: factores externos, cíclicos y estructurales," Borradores de Economia 1061, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1061
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1061
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.1061
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/be.1061?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Davis, J. Scott & Mack, Adrienne & Phoa, Wesley & Vandenabeele, Anne, 2016. "Credit booms, banking crises, and the current account," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 360-377.
    2. Moral-Benito, Enrique & Roehn, Oliver, 2016. "The impact of financial regulation on current account balances," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 148-166.
    3. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
    4. François Geerolf & Thomas Grjebine, 2013. "House Prices Drive Current Accounts: Evidence From Property Tax Variations," Working Papers 2013-18, CEPII research center.
    5. Hakan Kara & Cagri Sarikaya, 2014. "Current Account Deficit in Turkey: Cyclical or Structural?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1420, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    6. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jhon Edwar Torres & Juan Pablo Cote, 2017. "Un nuevo cálculo de la tasa de cambio real de equilibrio para Colombia: Enfoque de Balance Macroeconómico," Borradores de Economia 1030, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    9. Gudmundsson, Gudmundur S. & Zoega, Gylfi, 2014. "Age structure and the current account," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 183-186.
    10. Alexander Guarín & Andrés González & Daphné Skandalis & Daniela Sánchez, 2014. "An Early Warning Model for Predicting Credit Booms Using Macroeconomic Aggregates," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 32(73), pages 77-86, July.
    11. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Carolina Arteaga & Roderick Luna & Jair Ojeda-Joya, 2011. "Normas de cuenta corriente y tasa de cambio real de equilibrio en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009150, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    13. Ojeda Joya, Jair & Torres, Jhon Edwar, 2012. "Posición externa de largo plazo y tipo de cambio real de equilibrio en Colombia," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia - CIE, October.
    14. Mar Delgado-Téllez & Enrique Moral-Benito & Francesca Viani, 2020. "An anatomy of the Spanish current account adjustment: the role of permanent and transitory factors," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 501-529, December.
    15. Mr. Julian Di Giovanni & Mr. Rudolfs Bems & Jungjin Lee & Ms. Mitali Das & Ms. Filiz D Unsal & Marola Castillo & Jair Rodriguez & Mr. Mauricio Vargas & Mr. Luis Catão & Mr. Steven T Phillips & Mr. Luc, 2013. "The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology," IMF Working Papers 2013/272, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "On the impact of the launch of the euro on EMU macroeconomic vulnerability," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-51, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Arteaga Cabrales, Carolina & Huertas-Campos, Carlos Alfonso & Olarte Armenta, Sergio, 2013. "Índice de desbalance macroeconómico," Chapters, in: Rincón-Castro, Hernán & Velasco, Andrés M. (ed.), Flujos de capitales, choques externos y respuestas de política en países emergentes, chapter 8, pages 301-336, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Guarin, Alexander & Lozano, Ignacio, 2017. "Credit funding and banking fragility: A forecasting model for emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 168-189.
    4. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Longaric, Pablo Anaya & Rubaszek, Michał, 2021. "The predictive power of equilibrium exchange rate models," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 7.
    5. Alexander Guarín-López & Ignacio Lozano-Espitia, 2016. "Credit Funding and Banking Fragility: An Empirical Analysis for Emerging Economies," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 014306, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    6. Turrini, Alessandro & Zeugner, Stefan, 2019. "Benchmarks for net international investment positions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 149-164.
    7. Miriam Koomen & Laurence Wicht, 2020. "Demographics, pension systems, and the current account: an empirical assessment using the IMF current account model," Working Papers 2020-23, Swiss National Bank.
    8. Leonor Coutinho & Alessandro Turrini & Stefan Zeugner, 2018. "Methodologies for the Assessment of Current Account Benchmarks," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 086, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    9. Koomen, Miriam & Wicht, Laurence, 2022. "Pension systems and the current account: An empirical exploration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    10. Desbordes, Rodolphe & Koop, Gary & Vicard, Vincent, 2018. "One size does not fit all… panel data: Bayesian model averaging and data poolability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 364-376.
    11. Luís A. V. Catão, 2018. "Reforms and External Balances in Southern Europe and Ireland," Working Papers REM 2018/27, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    12. Mariarosaria Comunale & Markus Eller & Mathias Lahnsteiner, 2020. "Assessing credit gaps in CESEE based on levels justified by fundamentals – a comparison across different estimation approaches," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 74, Bank of Lithuania.
    13. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    14. Hartwig, Benny & Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves S., 2021. "Identifying indicators of systemic risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    15. Jan Behringer & Till van Treeck, 2018. "Varieties of capitalism and growth regimes: the role of income distribution," IMK Working Paper 194-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    16. Pucar Emilija Beker & Glavaški Olgica, 2019. "Macroeconomic Еxternal (Im)Balances within the Eurozone: Core Vs Periphery," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 57(3), pages 257-272, September.
    17. Ignacio Lozano-Espitia & Alexander Guarín-López, 2015. "Fragilidad bancaria en Colombia: un análisis basado en las hojas de balance," Chapters, in: Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jair N. Ojeda-Joya (ed.), Política monetaria y estabilidad financiera en economías pequeñas y abiertas, chapter 10, pages 301-338, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    18. Bjarni G. Einarsson & Kristófer Gunnlaugsson & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2015. "The long history of financial boom-bust cycles in Iceland - Part I: Financial crises," Economics wp68, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    19. Soo Xin Lin & Jerome Kueh, 2019. "Determinants of Current Account Balance in Six ASEAN Countries: A Panel Analysis Approach," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(7), pages 129-129, July.
    20. María Victoria Landaberry, 2019. "Boom de crédito en Uruguay: Identificación y Anticipación," Documentos de trabajo 2019001, Banco Central del Uruguay.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cuenta Corriente; Colombia; Factores Externos; Balance Fiscal; Ciclo Financiero; Current account; Colombia; External Factors; Fiscal Balance; Financial Cycle.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1061. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.