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Posición externa de largo plazo y tipo de cambio real de equilibrio en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Jair Ojeda Joya
  • Jhon Edwar Torres

Abstract

Resumen: En este trabajo se calcula un nivel de equilibrio para los Activos Externos Netos de Colombia (AEN), y se estudian sus implicaciones sobre el Tipo de Cambio Real (TCR). Para determinar el nivel de equilibrio de AEN, se estima un vector de cointegración con un panel de datos con efectos fijos ajustado por medio de Mínimos Cuadrados Dinámicos. A partir del nivel de largo plazo estimado de AEN, se analizan las implicaciones sobre el TCR a través de la metodología de Sostenibilidad Externa, la cual permite derivar niveles ideales de la cuenta corriente y del TCR. Los principales resultados indican que durante los últimos anos, el nivel de AEN se ha ubicado cerca a sus niveles de largo plazo. Además, el TCR ha estado por encima de sus niveles ideales debido a que los balances en cuenta corriente observados han sido mejores que los niveles normativos que esta estimación implica.Abstract: This paper calculates an equilibrium level for Net Foreign Assets (NFA) in Colombia, and discusses its implications for the real exchange rate (RER). In order to obtain the equilibrium level of NFA, we estimate a cointegrating vector with fixed-effects panel data adjusted by using Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS). From this estimated long-run level of NFA, we analyze the implications on the RER by means of the External Sustainability methodology, which allows deriving ideal levels for the current account and the RER. Our main results show that the NFA levels have been close to their long-run levelsin recent years. Furthermore, the RER has fluctuated above its ideal levels because the observed current account has been better than the normative levels implied by this estimation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jair Ojeda Joya & Jhon Edwar Torres, 2012. "Posición externa de largo plazo y tipo de cambio real de equilibrio en Colombia," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000174:010680
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    Cited by:

    1. Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ramírez & Carolina Durana-Ángel & Clark Granger-Castaño & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez & Daniel Parra-Amado & José Pulido &, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 102, pages 1-62, July.
    2. Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Clark Granger-Castaño & Andrés Sánchez-Jabba, 2022. "The Expected Effects of Climate Change on Colombia’s Current Account," Borradores de Economia 1214, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Hugo Fuentes-Dávila & Juan Tenorio, 2023. "El equilibrio en la cuenta corriente y sus implicancias en el tipo de cambio real en Perú," Working Papers 196, Peruvian Economic Association.
    4. Agudelo-Rivera, Camila & Granger-Castaño, Clark & Sánchez-Jabba, Andrés, 2024. "Efectos previstos del cambio climático en la cuenta corriente de Colombia," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    5. Jair N. Ojeda-Joya, 2019. "Episodios de deterioro de la cuenta corriente en Colombia: factores externos, cíclicos y estructurales," Borradores de Economia 1061, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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