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Posición Externa de Largo Plazo y Tipo de Cambio Real de Equilibrio en Colombia

  • Jair Ojeda JOya

    ()

  • Jhon Edwar Torres

    ()

En este trabajo se calcula un nivel de equilibrio para los Activos Externos Netos de Colombia (AEN), y se estudian sus implicaciones sobre el Tipo de Cambio Real (TCR). Para determinar el nivel de equilibrio de AEN, se estima un vector de cointegración con un panel de efectos fijos ajustado por medio de Mínimos Cuadrados Dinámicos. A partir del nivel de largo plazo estimado de AEN, se analizan las implicaciones sobre el TCR a través de la metodología de Sostenibilidad Externa, la cual permite derivar niveles ideales de la Cuenta Corriente y del TCR. Los principales resultados indican que durante los últimos años, el nivel de AEN se ha ubicado cerca a sus niveles de largo plazo. Además, se detectan los períodos en los cuales el TCR ha estado relativamente alejado de sus niveles ideales.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 745.

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Length: 34
Date of creation: Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:745
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