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The importance of the exchange rate regime in limiting current account imbalances in sub-Saharan African countries

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  • Blaise Gnimassoun

Abstract

One of the major current concerns of economic policy in developing countries is the choice of the appropriate exchange rate regime to consolidate and accelerate the pace of economic growth. This paper aims to investigate whether the choice of a country’s exchange rate regime may affect current account imbalances for sub-Saharan African economies. To this end, we first use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to address concerns about model uncertainty and identify the key determinants (fundamentals) of external balances. Then, estimating current account imbalances over the 1980-2012 period, we show that flexible exchange rate regimes are more effective in preventing such disequilibria. Consequently, candidates for membership of monetary unions should discuss widely the possible adjustment mechanisms before forming such unions; one potential measure being the sharing of external risks at regional level

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  • Blaise Gnimassoun, 2014. "The importance of the exchange rate regime in limiting current account imbalances in sub-Saharan African countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-22, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  • Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2014-22
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    6. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2017. "Exchange rate misalignments and the external balance under a pegged currency system," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 949-974, November.
    7. Hadj Fraj, Salma & bouchoucha, Najeh & Maktouf, Samir, 2020. "Political stability and economic growth: the role of exchange rate regime," MPRA Paper 104586, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Blaise Gnimassoun, Joseph Keneck Massil, 2019. "Determinants of corruption: can we put all countries in the same basket?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 16(2), pages 239-276, December.
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    10. Cushman, David O. & De Vita, Glauco, 2017. "Exchange rate regimes and FDI in developing countries: A propensity score matching approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 143-163.
    11. Salma Hadj Fraj & Mekki Hamdaoui & Samir Maktouf, 2018. "Governance and economic growth: The role of the exchange rate regime," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 156, pages 326-364.
    12. Hadj Fraj, Salma & Hamdaoui, Mekki & Maktouf, Samir, 2018. "Governance and economic growth: The role of the exchange rate regime," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 326-364.
    13. Soares Esteves, Paulo & Prades, Elvira, 2016. "On domestic demand and export performance in the euro area countries: does export concentration matter?," Working Paper Series 1909, European Central Bank.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current account imbalances; Exchange rate regime; Bayesian model averaging; Sub-Saharan Africa.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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