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Exchange Rate Policy and External Vulnerabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa: Nominal, Real or Mixed Targeting?

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  • Fadia Al Hajj

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales)

  • Gilles Dufrenot

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales)

  • Benjamin Keddad

    () (PSB - Paris School of Business)

Abstract

This paper discusses the theoretical choice of exchange rate anchors in Sub-Saharan African countries that are facing external vulnerabilities. To reduce instability, policymakers choose among promoting external competitiveness using a real anchor, lowering the burden of external debt using a nominal anchor or using a policy mix of both anchors. We observe that these countries tend to adopt mixed anchor policies. We solve a state space model to explain the determinants of and the strategy behind this policy. We find that the choice of policy mix is a two-step strategy: First, authorities choose the degree of nominal exchange rate flexibility according to the velocity of money, trade openness, foreign debt, degree of exchange rate pass-through and exchange rate target zone. Second, authorities seek to stabilize the real exchange rate depending on the degree of trade integration with the rest of world and the degree of foreign exchange interventions. We conclude with regime-switching estimations to provide empirical evidence of how these economic fundamentals influence exchange rate policy in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Fadia Al Hajj & Gilles Dufrenot & Benjamin Keddad, 2018. "Exchange Rate Policy and External Vulnerabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa: Nominal, Real or Mixed Targeting?," Working Papers halshs-01757046, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01757046
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01757046
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    Keywords

    African countries; exchange rate policy; external vulnerabilities; regime-switching model;

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