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The Nexus between Oil price and Russia’s Real Exchange rate: Better Paths via Unconditional vs Conditional Analysis

Author

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  • Jamal Bouoiyour

    () (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)

  • Refk Selmi

    (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)

  • Muhammad Shahbaz

    (GATECH - College of Computing - Georgia Institute of Technology [Atlanta])

  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari

    (ICFAI University Tripura - ICFAI University Tripura)

Abstract

Instead of analyzing the causality between two time series (unconditional analysis), as it is usually done, the present study deals with the nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate conditioning upon potential control variables at well-specified horizons and on a frequency by frequency basis. This research accounts also for the possible transient linkages and signal discontinuities. A major finding of this paper is deeply suggestive of a sharp causality running from oil price to real exchange rate in lower frequencies. This implies that Russia should better tackle with turbulence triggered by oil price and continue to reduce its energy dependency via drastic and proactive measures. The economic and fiscal initiatives of Putin administration may help to cope with sudden shocks, to lessen the great oil dependence and to build confidence needed for economic recovery. While our research does not say much about the routes through which oil price may affect differently real exchange rate, it clearly indicates the presence of short-term relationship conditional to GDP, government expenditures, terms of trade and productivity differential. The conditional analysis and signal detection appear as meaningful exercises to find new insights into the focal issue.
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Suggested Citation

  • Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi & Muhammad Shahbaz & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2015. "The Nexus between Oil price and Russia’s Real Exchange rate: Better Paths via Unconditional vs Conditional Analysis," Post-Print hal-01879678, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01879678
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-univ-pau.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01879678
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    2. Selmi, Refk & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2018. "Is Bitcoin a hedge, a safe haven or a diversifier for oil price movements? A comparison with gold," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 787-801.
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    4. Chen, Hongtao & Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Zhu, Yingming, 2016. "Oil price shocks and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1036-1048.
    5. Ichiro Iwasaki & Mathilde Maurel, 2017. "The Impact of Crisis on Firm Creation and Regeneration in Russia: Regional Panel Data Analysis," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01505659, HAL.
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    7. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2015. "Is the Internet Search Driving Oil Market? A Revisit through Time-Frequency approaches," MPRA Paper 66214, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2016. "The responses of BRICS Equities to China's Slowdown: A Multi-Scale Causality Analysis," Working Papers hal-01880323, HAL.
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    10. Martin Baumgaertner & Jens Klose, 2018. "Forecasting Exchange Rates with Commodity Prices - A Global Country Analysis," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201812, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    11. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2015. "Greece withdraws from Euro and runs on Bitcoin; April Fools Prank or Serious Possibility?," MPRA Paper 65317, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Huang, Shupei & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Wen, Shaobo & Hao, Xiaoqing, 2017. "The multiscale impact of exchange rates on the oil-stock nexus: Evidence from China and Russia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 667-678.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General

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