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A Real Exchange Rate Based Phillips Curve

Author

Listed:
  • Konstantin Styrin

    () (New Economic School)

  • Oleg Zamulin

    () (National Research University – Higher School of Economics)

Abstract

It has been noted in many papers that primary commodity exporting economies and developing countries frequently respond to movements in the real exchange rate as part of their monetary policies. For many central banks, this variable is the primary indicator of real activity. At the same time, smoothing the real exchange rate fluctuations has certain inflationary costs. In a way, this trade-off between inflation and the real exchange rate is identical to a standard Phillips curve. This paper derives an exact theoretical expression for this “real exchange rate based Phillips curve,” and finds empirical support for its existence in the data for a number of primary commodity exporting economies such as Australia, Canada, New Zealand and others. It turns out that the correct right-hand-side variable in the Phillips curve is not the real exchange rate itself, but rather its deviation from the fundamental value, which is a function of the international price of exported commodities. The empirical counterpart of the fundamental real exchange rate is obtained from a cointegrating equation for the real exchange rate and the countryspecific price index of exported commodities. As is frequently found in other Phillips curve studies, empirical tests point towards the accelerationist specification, which can be rationalized by dominance of adaptive expectations in price-setting behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantin Styrin & Oleg Zamulin, 2012. "A Real Exchange Rate Based Phillips Curve," Working Papers w0179, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  • Handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0179
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    File URL: http://www.cefir.ru/papers/WP179.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Targeting the real exchange rate: theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 97-133, June.
    2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    3. Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1145-1194.
    4. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2008. "Identifying the new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 525-551.
    5. Kleibergen, Frank & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2009. "Weak Instrument Robust Tests in GMM and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 293-311.
    6. Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2005. "Identification Issues in Forward-Looking Models Estimated by GMM, with an Application to the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 421-448, June.
    7. Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2006. "Can Oil Prices Explain the Real Appreciation of the Russian Ruble in 1998-2005?," Working Papers w0083, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    8. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange rate; inflation; Phillips curve; commodity currencies;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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