IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cfr/cefirw/w0083.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Can Oil Prices Explain the Real Appreciation of the Russian Ruble in 1998-2005?

Author

Listed:
  • Kirill Sosunov

    () (Higher School of Economics)

  • Oleg Zamulin

    () (New Economic School)

Abstract

The paper investigates whether the 80% real appreciation of the Russian ruble in 1998-2005 can be explained by the increase in oil revenues in a calibrated general equilibrium model. It is shown that the oil prices alone cannot account for the appreciation with forward-looking permanent-income consumers, unless the oil price increase is assumed permanent. Accounting for the increase in the volume of oil exports, however, can help, provided that the increase is assumed to be permanent.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2006. "Can Oil Prices Explain the Real Appreciation of the Russian Ruble in 1998-2005?," Working Papers w0083, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  • Handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0083
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cefir.ru/papers/WP83Sosunov_Zamulin.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614 Elsevier.
    2. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    3. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
    4. Sachs, J-D & Warner, A-M, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," Papers 517a, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
    5. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1999. "The Aftermath of Appreciations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 229-262.
    6. Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2006. "The Inflationary Consequences of Real Exchange Rate Targeting via Accumulation of Reserves," Working Papers w0082, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    7. Sebastian Edwards & Miguel A. Savastano, 1999. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 7228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:gam:jecomi:v:5:y:2017:i:2:p:13-:d:96167 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eco:journ2:2017-04-02 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Zubarev, Andrey & Polbin, Andrey, 2017. "Scenario Analysis of the Impact of Reducing the Export Duty on Oil on the Russian Economy within the Framework of the General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 051734, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    4. Zubarev, Andrey V. & Polbin, Andrey V., 2016. "Estimation of Macroeconomic Effects from the Decline in Oil Export Duty," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 6, pages 8-35, December.
    5. Polbin, Andrey, 2014. "Econometric estimation of a structural macroeconomic model for the Russian economy," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 3-29.
    6. Aivazian, Sergei & Bereznyatskiy, Alexander & Brodsky, Boris, 2014. "Dutch disease in Russian and Armenian economies," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 36(4), pages 32-60.
    7. Konstantin Styrin & Oleg Zamulin, 2012. "A Real Exchange Rate Based Phillips Curve," Working Papers w0179, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange rate; Commodity prices;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0083. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julia Babich). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cefirru.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.