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Dutch disease in Russian and Armenian economies

Author

Listed:
  • Aivazian, Sergei

    (CEMI RAS, Moscow, Russia)

  • Bereznyatskiy, Alexander

    (CEMI RAS, Moscow, Russia)

  • Brodsky, Boris

    (CEMI RAS, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

Hypothesis of Dutch disease in Russian and Armenian economies is tested in the paper. Theoretical macroeconomic modeling and econometric verification with co-integration and ECM expose some relationships which suggest the presence of Dutch disease in both economies, caused in case of Russian economy by huge oil export and in Armenian by migration and private transfers.

Suggested Citation

  • Aivazian, Sergei & Bereznyatskiy, Alexander & Brodsky, Boris, 2014. "Dutch disease in Russian and Armenian economies," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 36(4), pages 32-60.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0248
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. E. Gurvich & V. Sokolov & A. Ulyukaev., 2008. "The Impact of the Balassa—Samuelson Effect on the Real Ruble Exchange Rate: The Assessment," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 7.
    2. Mr. Nadeem Ilahi & Fahad Alturki & Jaime Espinosa-Bowen, 2009. "How Russia Affects the Neighborhood - Trade, Financial, and Remittance Channels," IMF Working Papers 2009/277, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2006. "Can Oil Prices Explain the Real Appreciation of the Russian Ruble in 1998-2005?," Working Papers w0083, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    4. Aivazian, Sergey & Brodsky , Boris & Sandoyan, Edward & Voskanyan, Mariam & Manukyan, David, 2013. "Macroeconometric modeling of Russian and Armenian economies. II. Aggregated macroeconometric models of the national economies of Russia and Armenia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 7-31.
    5. van Wijnbergen, Sweder J G, 1984. "The 'Dutch Disease': A Disease after All?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 41-55, March.
    6. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. A. Blank & E. Gurvich & A. Ulyukaev., 2006. "Exchange Rate and Competitiveness of Russia’s Industries," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 6.
    9. Конторович В.К., 2001. "Взаимосвязь Реального Курса Рубля И Динамики Промышленного Производства В России," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 5(3), pages 363-374.
    10. Aivazian, Sergey & Brodsky, Boris & Sandoyan, Edward & Voskanyan, Mariam & Manukyan, David, 2013. "Macroeconometric modeling of the Russian and Armenian economy. I. Peculiarities of macroeconomic situation and theoretical description of dynamic models," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 30(2), pages 3-25.
    11. Brodsky, Boris, 2006. "The Influence of the Ruble Real Exchange Rate on the Russian Economy," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 4(4), pages 90-104.
    12. Nolvia Nery Saca & Luis René Cáceres, 2006. "What Do Remittances Do? Analyzing the Private Remittance Transmission Mechanism in El Salvador," IMF Working Papers 2006/250, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aivazian, Sergei & Bereznyatsky, Aleksandr & Brodsky, Boris, 2018. "Modeling Russian social indicators," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 51, pages 5-32.
    2. Andrey Polbin & Mikhail Andreyev & Andrey Zubarev, 2018. "How Commodity Prices Influence the Members of the Eurasian Economic Union," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 623-637.
    3. Arus Tunian, 2015. "Current Account Deficit And Economic Growth In Armenia," Studies and Scientific Researches. Economics Edition, "Vasile Alecsandri" University of Bacau, Faculty of Economic Sciences, issue 21.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dutch disease; Russian economy; Armenian economy; co-integration; ECM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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