Monetary Policy Peculiarities in Countries with Natural Resources, with Significant Changes in Terms of Trade[Особенности Монетарной Политики В Странах, Наделенных Природными Ресурсами, При Значительных Изменениях Условий Торговли]

This paper assesses the reaction of the aggregate output, the real exchange rate and inflation in response to the shock of the terms of trade, both in the Russian economy and in the panel of countries specializing in oil exports. We divide shocks of world oil prices into positive and negative ones using Mork and Hamilton approaches. This could help us to show that changes in macroeconomic indicators in response to the positive and negative shocks in the terms of trade are asymmetric. The sharp negative dynamics of oil prices has a greater impact on the economy of the oil-exporting country in comparison with the unexpected increase in energy prices. It is shown that in the group of countries using the inflation targeting regime, output reacts to the shock of oil prices to a lesser extent than in the group of countries adhering to the fixed exchange rate regime.