Commodity Prices, Monetary Policy and Inflation
During the second half of the 2000s, the world experienced a rapid and substantial rise in commodity prices. This shock posed complex challenges for monetary policy, in particular due to the significant increase in food and energy prices, and the repercussions they had on aggregate inflation measures. This paper discusses the role of commodity price shocks in monetary policy in the light of recent episodes of such shocks. It begins by discussing whether monetary policy should target core or headline inflation, and what should be the role of commodity price shocks in setting interest rates. It is argued that there are good reasons to focus on headline inflation, as most central banks actually do. Although core inflation provides a good indicator of underlying inflationary pressures, the evolution of commodity prices should not be overlooked, because of pervasive second-round effects. This paper reviews the evidence on the rise of inflation across countries and reports that food inflation, more than energy inflation, has relevant propagation effects on core inflation. This finding is particularly important in emerging market economies, where the share of food in the consumer basket is significant. The evidence also shows that countries that had lower inflation during the run up of commodity prices before the global crisis had more inflation in the subsequent rise after the global crisis, suggesting that part of the pre-crisis inflationary success may have been due to repressed inflation. This paper also discusses other factors that may explain different inflationary performances across countries.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Okano, Eiji, 2007. "The choice of the inflation rate as a target in an economy with pricing-to-market," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 48-67, January.
- Rahul Anand & Eswar Prasad, 2010.
"Optimal Price Indices for Targeting Inflation Under Incomplete Markets,"
IMF Working Papers
10/200, International Monetary Fund.
- Rahul Anand & Eswar S. Prasad, 2010. "Optimal Price Indices for Targeting Inflation Under Incomplete Markets," NBER Working Papers 16290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anand, Rahul & Prasad, Eswar, 2010. "Optimal Price Indices for Targeting Inflation under Incomplete Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 5137, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Martin Bodenstein & Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri, 2008.
"Optimal monetary policy with distinct core and headline inflation rates,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
941, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Bodenstein, Martin & Erceg, Christopher J. & Guerrieri, Luca, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy with distinct core and headline inflation rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages S18-S33, October.
- Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2005. "Oil Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model for a Small Open Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 353, Central Bank of Chile.
- Luis Catão & Roberto Chang, 2010.
"World Food Prices and Monetary Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
16563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "A Comparison of Monetary Anchor Options, Including Product Price Targeting, for Commodity-Exporters in Latin America," NBER Working Papers 16362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- José De Gregorio & Oscar Landerretche & Christopher Neilson, 2007.
"Another Pass-Through Bites The Dust? Oil Prices And Inflation,"
wp238, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
- Jose de Gregorio & Oscar Landerretche & Christopher Neilson, 2007. "Another Pass-Through Bites the Dust? Oil Prices and Inflation," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
- Jose De Gregorio. & Oscar Landerretche. & Christopher Neilson., 2007. "Another Pass-Through Bites the Dust? Oil Prices and Inflation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 417, Central Bank of Chile.
- Nicoletta Batini & Eugen Tereanu, 2010. "Inflation targeting during asset and commodity price booms," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 15-35, Spring.
- Michael Pedersen, 2011. "Propagation of Shocks to Food and Energy Prices: an International Comparison," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 648, Central Bank of Chile.
- Alfredo Pistelli & Víctor Riquelme, 2010. "Auge y caída de precios de commodities y su impacto sobre precios domésticos: Comparación internacional," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 567, Central Bank of Chile.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:udc:wpaper:wp359. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rafael Carranza)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.