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The asymmetric relationship between oil revenues and economic activities: The case of oil-exporting countries

  • Mehrara, Mohsen
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    This paper examines the nonlinear or asymmetric relationship between oil revenues and output growth in oil-exporting countries, applying a dynamic panel framework and two different measures of oil shocks. The main results in this paper confirm the stylized facts that in heavily oil-dependent countries lacking the institutional mechanisms de-linking fiscal expenditure from current revenue, oil revenue shocks tend to affect the output in asymmetric and nonlinear ways. The findings suggest that output growth is adversely affected by the negative oil shocks, while oil booms or the positive oil shocks play a limited role in stimulating economic growth. The findings have practical policy implications for decision makers in the area of macroeconomic planning. The use of stabilization and savings funds and diversification of the real sector seems crucial to minimize the harmful effects of oil booms and busts.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 36 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 3 (March)
    Pages: 1164-1168

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:3:p:1164-1168
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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    1. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
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    7. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
    8. Huang, Bwo-Nung & Hwang, M.J. & Peng, Hsiao-Ping, 2005. "The asymmetry of the impact of oil price shocks on economic activities: An application of the multivariate threshold model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 455-476, May.
    9. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
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    12. Paul Romer, 1989. "Endogenous Technological Change," NBER Working Papers 3210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Javier F. Mory, 1993. "Oil Prices and Economic Activity: Is the Relationship Symmetric?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 151-162.
    14. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
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    16. Hamilton, James D, 1988. "A Neoclassical Model of Unemployment and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 593-617, June.
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