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To consume or not: How oil prices affect the comovement of consumption and aggregate wealth

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  • Odusami, Babatunde Olatunji

Abstract

This paper provides insight into how oil price movements affect the consumption choices of U.S. households through the wealth channel. Lettau and Ludvigson (2001) show that while consumption, asset wealth, and labor income share a common long-term trend; they substantially deviate from one another in the short run. In this paper, I show that these transitory deviations can be explained by fluctuations in the price of crude oil. Linear and threshold multivariate autoregressive models are used to measure the oil price effect. Oil price effect on the consumption to aggregate wealth ratio is robust to monetary policy effect, sub-period effect, and econometric specifications of oil price effect. Generally speaking, higher (lower) oil price will lead to a decrease (increase) in the proportion of aggregate wealth consumed. In addition, the magnitude of the oil price effect is asymmetric and sub-period dependent. Oil price effect was higher before the 1980's than in succeeding periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Odusami, Babatunde Olatunji, 2010. "To consume or not: How oil prices affect the comovement of consumption and aggregate wealth," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 857-867, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:4:p:857-867
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fukunari KIMURA & Han PHOUMIN, . "Energy Market Integration in EAST Asia: Energy Trade, Cross Border Electricity, and Price Mechanism," Books, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), number 2013-rpr-29 edited by Fukunari KIMURA & Han PHOUMIN.
    2. Natanelov, Valeri & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2013. "Crude oil–corn–ethanol – nexus: A contextual approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 504-513.
    3. Natanelov, Valeri & Alam, Mohammad Jahangir & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2011. "Is There Co-Movement of Agricultural Commodities Futures Prices and Crude Oil?," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114626, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Dayong ZHANG & David C. Broadstock, 2014. "Impact of International Oil Price Shocks on Consumption Expenditures in ASEAN and East Asia," Working Papers DP-2014-24, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    5. Wang, Yu Shan, 2013. "Oil price effects on personal consumption expenditures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 198-204.
    6. Zhang, Dayong & Broadstock, David C. & Cao, Hong, 2014. "International oil shocks and household consumption in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 146-156.
    7. Natanelov, Valeri & Alam, Mohammad J. & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2011. "Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4971-4984, September.

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