IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecanpo/v74y2022icp789-805.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The asymmetric effects of international oil prices, oil price uncertainty and income on urban residents’ consumption in China

Author

Listed:
  • Long, Shaobo
  • Zhang, Rui

Abstract

This study employs the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to investigate the asymmetric effects of international oil prices (oil price uncertainty) and urban residents’ income on consumption in China. The empirical results show that the asymmetric effects of oil prices (oil price uncertainty) and urban residents’ income on consumption are significant in the both the short- and long-term. Specifically, increasing urban residents’ consumption significantly respond to a decline in oil prices while there is no obvious decreased consumption response to a rise in oil prices due to the wealth transfer effect. We also observe that the stimulating effect of falling oil price uncertainty on urban residents’ consumption is noticeably stronger than the adverse effect of increasing oil price uncertainty on consumption because of the expectation effect. Finally, we find that the asymmetric effect of income changes on consumption is significant due to the ratchet effect, whereby an income increase has a stronger stimulus effect than the reducing effect of income decline on consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Long, Shaobo & Zhang, Rui, 2022. "The asymmetric effects of international oil prices, oil price uncertainty and income on urban residents’ consumption in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 789-805.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:74:y:2022:i:c:p:789-805
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2022.04.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0313592622000601
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eap.2022.04.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cunado, J. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2005. "Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 65-83, February.
    2. Wang, Yu Shan, 2013. "Oil price effects on personal consumption expenditures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 198-204.
    3. Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Hendry, David F., 2001. "Computer automation of general-to-specific model selection procedures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 831-866, June.
    4. Gao, Liping & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Saba, Richard, 2014. "How do oil price shocks affect consumer prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 313-323.
    5. Malik, Farooq & Umar, Zaghum, 2019. "Dynamic connectedness of oil price shocks and exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    6. Zhang, Dayong & Broadstock, David C. & Cao, Hong, 2014. "International oil shocks and household consumption in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 146-156.
    7. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    8. Liu, Tangyong & Gong, Xu, 2020. "Analyzing time-varying volatility spillovers between the crude oil markets using a new method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Amiri, Hossein & Sayadi, Mohammad & Mamipour, Siab, 2021. "Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Outcomes; Fresh Evidences from a scenario-based NK-DSGE analysis for oil-exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen, 2021. "Oil price and US dollar exchange rate: Change detection of bi-directional causal impact," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    11. Martin Browning & Annamaria Lusardi, 1996. "Household Saving: Micro Theories and Micro Facts," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 1797-1855, December.
    12. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    13. Cunado, Juncal & Jo, Soojin & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2015. "Macroeconomic impacts of oil price shocks in Asian economies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 867-879.
    14. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    15. Lizardo, Radhamés A. & Mollick, André V., 2010. "Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 399-408, March.
    16. Du, Limin & Yanan, He & Wei, Chu, 2010. "The relationship between oil price shocks and China's macro-economy: An empirical analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4142-4151, August.
    17. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    18. Zhang, Yixing & Jia, Qinmin & Chen, Chen, 2021. "Risk attitude, financial literacy and household consumption: Evidence from stock market crash in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 995-1006.
    19. Tang, Weiqi & Wu, Libo & Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2010. "Oil price shocks and their short- and long-term effects on the Chinese economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 3-14, September.
    20. Anindya Banerjee & Juan Dolado & Ricardo Mestre, 1998. "Error‐correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single‐equation Framework," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 267-283, May.
    21. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Tran, Vuong Thao & Nguyen, Dat Thanh, 2019. "Crude oil price uncertainty and corporate investment: New global evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 54-65.
    22. Katircioglu, Salih Turan & Sertoglu, Kamil & Candemir, Mehmet & Mercan, Mehmet, 2015. "Oil price movements and macroeconomic performance: Evidence from twenty-six OECD countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 257-270.
    23. Kocaarslan, Baris & Soytas, Mehmet Ali & Soytas, Ugur, 2020. "The asymmetric impact of oil prices, interest rates and oil price uncertainty on unemployment in the US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    24. Diaz, Elena Maria & Molero, Juan Carlos & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2016. "Oil price volatility and stock returns in the G7 economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 417-430.
    25. Juncal Cunado & Soojin Jo & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2015. "Revisiting the Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Shocks in Asian Economies," Staff Working Papers 15-23, Bank of Canada.
    26. Bunn, Philip & Le Roux, Jeanne & Reinold, Kate & Surico, Paolo, 2018. "The consumption response to positive and negative income shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 1-15.
    27. Zeina N. Alsalman & Mohamad B. Karaki, 2019. "Oil Prices and Personal Consumption Expenditures: Does the Source of the Shock Matter?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(2), pages 250-270, April.
    28. Hamilton, James D, 1988. "A Neoclassical Model of Unemployment and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 593-617, June.
    29. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2021. "Asymmetric responses of consumer spending to energy prices: A threshold VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    30. Campbell, John Y, 1993. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing without Consumption Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 487-512, June.
    31. Claude Henry, 1974. "Investment decisions under uncertainty: The "irreversibility effect"," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/327343, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    32. Odusami, Babatunde Olatunji, 2010. "To consume or not: How oil prices affect the comovement of consumption and aggregate wealth," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 857-867, July.
    33. Filis, George, 2010. "Macro economy, stock market and oil prices: Do meaningful relationships exist among their cyclical fluctuations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 877-886, July.
    34. Nusair, Salah A., 2016. "The effects of oil price shocks on the economies of the Gulf Co-operation Council countries: Nonlinear analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 256-267.
    35. Yash P. Mehra & Jon D. Petersen, 2005. "Oil prices and consumer spending," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 91(Sum), pages 51-70.
    36. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-1012, December.
    37. Brown, Stephen P. A. & Yucel, Mine K., 2002. "Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretative survey," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 193-208.
    38. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    39. Lacheheb, Miloud & Sirag, Abdalla, 2019. "Oil price and inflation in Algeria: A nonlinear ARDL approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 217-222.
    40. Lorde, Troy & Jackman, Mahalia & Thomas, Chrystol, 2009. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on a small open oil-producing country: The case of Trinidad and Tobago," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2708-2716, July.
    41. Fenghua Wen & Feng Min & Yue‐Jun Zhang & Can Yang, 2019. "Crude oil price shocks, monetary policy, and China's economy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 812-827, April.
    42. Zulfigarov, Farid & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2020. "The impact of oil price changes on selected macroeconomic indicators in Azerbaijan," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    43. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Nor, Safwan Mohd & Ferrer, Roman & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2017. "Asymmetric determinants of CDS spreads: U.S. industry-level evidence through the NARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 211-230.
    44. Zakaria, Muhammad & Khiam, Shahzeb & Mahmood, Hamid, 2021. "Influence of oil prices on inflation in South Asia: Some new evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    45. Kandemir Kocaaslan, Ozge, 2019. "Oil price uncertainty and unemployment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 577-583.
    46. Xiao, Jihong & Zhou, Min & Wen, Fengming & Wen, Fenghua, 2018. "Asymmetric impacts of oil price uncertainty on Chinese stock returns under different market conditions: Evidence from oil volatility index," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 777-786.
    47. Wu, Xi & Wang, Yudong, 2021. "How does corporate investment react to oil prices changes? Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    48. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "How sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 766-779, September.
    49. Nandha, Mohan & Faff, Robert, 2008. "Does oil move equity prices? A global view," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 986-997, May.
    50. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2020. "Asymmetric effects of oil price uncertainty on corporate investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    51. Ju, Keyi & Su, Bin & Zhou, Dequn & Wu, Junmin & Liu, Lifan, 2016. "Macroeconomic performance of oil price shocks: Outlier evidence from nineteen major oil-related countries/regions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 325-332.
    52. Nusair, Salah A. & Olson, Dennis, 2019. "The effects of oil price shocks on Asian exchange rates: Evidence from quantile regression analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 44-63.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ren, Xiaohang & liu, Ziqing & Jin, Chenglu & Lin, Ruya, 2023. "Oil price uncertainty and enterprise total factor productivity: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 201-218.
    2. Garrod Brian & Almeida António & Machado Luiz, 2023. "Modelling of nonlinear asymmetric effects of changes in tourism on economic growth in an autonomous small-island economy," European Journal of Tourism, Hospitality and Recreation, Sciendo, vol. 13(2), pages 154-172, December.
    3. Unggul Priyadi & Eko Atmadji & Listya Endang Artiani & Shahrina Md Nordin & Muhammad Ridhuan Tony Lim Abdullah & Mochamad Ali Imron & Muhammad Alkirom Wildan & Rohayu Che Omar, 2022. "Sustainable Energy Economic Policy: Population, Energy Consumption, and Macroeconomic Conditions," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(6), pages 80-85, November.
    4. Grzegorz Zimon, 2023. "Prospects for the Development of Transport in Poland during the Energy Crisis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 56-60, May.
    5. Su, Chi-Wei & Wang, Dan & Mirza, Nawazish & Zhong, Yifan & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "The impact of consumer confidence on oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    6. Bettarelli, Luca & Estefania-Flores, Julia & Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Pizzuto, Pietro, 2023. "Energy inflation and consumption inequality," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    7. Muhamad Nafik Hadi Ryandono & Mochamad Ali Imron & Muhammad Alkirom Wildan, 2022. "World Oil Prices and Exchange Rates on Islamic Banking Risks," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(4), pages 409-413, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Muhammad Iftikhar Ul Husnain & Qaisar Abbas & Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah, 2019. "Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on Asian economies: a nonlinear analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1319-1350, October.
    2. Kocaarslan, Baris & Soytas, Mehmet Ali & Soytas, Ugur, 2020. "The asymmetric impact of oil prices, interest rates and oil price uncertainty on unemployment in the US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    3. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. Liu, Donghui & Meng, Lingjie & Wang, Yudong, 2021. "The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on China’s exports: New evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Raza, Syed Ali & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Amir-ud-Din, Rafi & Sbia, Rashid & Shah, Nida, 2018. "Testing for wavelet based time-frequency relationship between oil prices and US economic activity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 571-580.
    6. Maud Korley & Evangelos Giouvris, 2022. "The Impact of Oil Price and Oil Volatility Index (OVX) on the Exchange Rate in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Oil Importing/Exporting Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-29, November.
    7. Nusair, Salah A. & Olson, Dennis, 2021. "Asymmetric oil price and Asian economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    8. Rajesh H. Acharya & Anver C. Sadath, 2018. "Revisiting the relationship between oil price and macro economy: Evidence from India," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2018(1), pages 173-190.
    9. Wen, Fenghua & Zhang, Keli & Gong, Xu, 2021. "The effects of oil price shocks on inflation in the G7 countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    10. Zhang, Dayong & Broadstock, David C. & Cao, Hong, 2014. "International oil shocks and household consumption in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 146-156.
    11. Nusair, Salah A., 2020. "The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on unemployment: Evidence from Canada and the U.S," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    12. Chiah, Mardy & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Tran, Vuong Thao & Zhong, Angel, 2022. "Energy price uncertainty and the value premium," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    13. KILICARSLAN Zerrin & DUMRUL Yasemin, 2017. "Macroeconomic Impacts Of Oil Price Shocks: An Empirical Analysis Based On The Svar Models," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 69(5), pages 55-72, December.
    14. Nusair, Salah A., 2019. "Oil price and inflation dynamics in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 997-1011.
    15. Nusair, Salah A. & Olson, Dennis, 2019. "The effects of oil price shocks on Asian exchange rates: Evidence from quantile regression analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 44-63.
    16. Aktham I. Maghyereh & Basil Awartani & Osama D. Sweidan, 2019. "Oil price uncertainty and real output growth: new evidence from selected oil-importing countries in the Middle East," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1601-1621, May.
    17. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata Kumar, 2019. "Asymmetric oil price transmission to the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar: A multiple threshold NARDL modelling approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    18. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    19. John Elder & Apostolos Serletis, 2010. "Oil Price Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1137-1159, September.
    20. Chen, Xian & Li, Yang & Xiao, Jihong & Wen, Fenghua, 2020. "Oil shocks, competition, and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International oil prices; Oil price uncertainty; Urban residents’ consumption; Income; NARDL model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:74:y:2022:i:c:p:789-805. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/economic-analysis-and-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.