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The relationship between global oil price shocks and China's output: A time-varying analysis

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  • Cross, Jamie
  • Nguyen, Bao H.

Abstract

We employ a class of time-varying Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) models on new standard dataset of China's GDP constructed by Chang et al. (2015) to examine the relationship between China's economic growth and global oil market fluctuations between 1992Q1 and 2015Q3. We find that: (1) the time varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility provides a better fit as compared to it's constant counterparts; (2) the impacts of intertemporal global oil price shocks on China's output are often small and temporary in nature; (3) oil supply and specific oil demand shocks generally produce negative movements in China's GDP growth whilst oil demand shocks tend to have positive effects; (4) domestic output shocks have no significant impact on price or quantity movements within the global oil market. The results are generally robust to three commonly employed indicators of global economic activity: Kilian's global real economic activity index, the metal price index and the global industrial production index, and two alternative oil price metrics: the US refiners' acquisition cost for imported crude oil and the West Texas Intermediate price of crude oil.

Suggested Citation

  • Cross, Jamie & Nguyen, Bao H., 2017. "The relationship between global oil price shocks and China's output: A time-varying analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 79-91.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:62:y:2017:i:c:p:79-91
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.12.014
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jamie L. Cross & Chenghan Hou & Bao H. Nguyen, 2018. "On the China factor in international oil markets: A regime switching approach," Working Papers No 11/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    2. Jamie Cross & Bao H. Nguyen & Bo Zhang, 2019. "New Kid on the Block? China vs the US in World Oil Markets," Working Papers No 02/2019, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    3. Kerli Lille, 2017. "The Role Of Capital Controls In Mediating Global Shocks," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 102, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    4. repec:eee:reveco:v:60:y:2019:i:c:p:62-84 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Abu-Bakar, Muhammad & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Is the oil price pass-through to domestic inflation symmetric or asymmetric? new evidence from India based on NARDL," MPRA Paper 87569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. repec:eee:energy:v:172:y:2019:i:c:p:691-701 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:eee:eneeco:v:75:y:2018:i:c:p:42-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Bao H. NGUYEN & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi, 2017. "Asymmetric Reactions of the U.S. Natural Gas Market and Economic Activity," Discussion papers 17102, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Bao H. NGUYEN & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi & Trung Duc TRAN, 2019. "Uncertainty-Dependent and Sign-Dependent Effects of Oil Market Shocks," Discussion papers 19042, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    10. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:8:p:2801-:d:162455 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; China; TVP-VAR-SV; Sign restrictions; Combining zero and sign restrictions;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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