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Why are crude oil prices high when global activity is weak?

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  • Ratti, Ronald A.
  • Vespignani, Joaquin L.

Abstract

There have been substantial increases in liquidity in recent years and real oil prices have almost returned to the high levels achieved before the global financial crisis. Unanticipated increases in global real M2 led to statistically significant increases in real oil prices. The historical impact of global real M2 on the real price of crude oil is important in the recovery of oil prices over 2009 to 2011.

Suggested Citation

  • Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Why are crude oil prices high when global activity is weak?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 133-136.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:121:y:2013:i:1:p:133-136
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2013.07.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nida Cakir Melek & Troy A. Davig & Jun Nie & Andrew Lee Smith & Didem Tuzemen, 2015. "Evaluating a Year of Oil Price Volatility," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-30.
    2. Cross, Jamie & Nguyen, Bao H., 2017. "The relationship between global oil price shocks and China's output: A time-varying analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 79-91.
    3. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "Commodity prices and BRIC and G3 liquidity: A SFAVEC approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 18-33.
    4. Raghavan, Mala, 2020. "An analysis of the global oil market using SVARMA models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    5. Brana, Sophie & Prat, Stéphanie, 2016. "The effects of global excess liquidity on emerging stock market returns: Evidence from a panel threshold model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 26-34.
    6. Ravazzolo, Francesco & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2017. "World steel production: A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity," Working Papers 2017-08, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    7. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "Oil prices and global factor macroeconomic variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 198-212.
    8. Pham, Thai-Binh & Sala, Hector, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price and risk-premium shocks on Vietnam: Evidence from an over-identifying SVAR analysis," MPRA Paper 96873, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jul 2019.
    9. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "OPEC and non-OPEC oil production and the global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 364-378.
    10. Takuji Fueki & Hiroka Higashi & Naoto Higashio & Jouchi Nakajima & Shinsuke Ohyama & Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2016. "Identifying Oil Price Shocks and Their Consequences:Role of Expectations and Financial Factors in the Crude Oil Market," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-17, Bank of Japan.
    11. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A, 2013. "International monetary transmission to the Euro area: Evidence from the U.S., Japan and China," MPRA Paper 45844, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Zhihua Ding & Caicai Feng & Zhenhua Liu & Guangqiang Wang & Lingyun He & Manzhi Liu, 2017. "Coal price fluctuation mechanism in China based on system dynamics model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(2), pages 1151-1167, January.
    13. Wang, Tian & Wang, Cangfeng, 2019. "The spillover effects of China's industrial growth on price changes of base metal," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 375-384.
    14. Liu, Tie-Ying & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2018. "Will the energy price bubble burst?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 276-288.
    15. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2014. "Oil prices and the economy: A global perspective," MPRA Paper 59407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Robert J. Powell & Duc H. Vo & Thach N. Pham, 2018. "Economic cycles and downside commodities risk," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 258-263, February.
    17. Medel, Carlos A., 2015. "Geopolitical Tensions, OPEC News, and Oil Price: A Granger Causality Analysis," MPRA Paper 65667, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Raghavan, Mala, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks on ASEAN-5 economies," Working Papers 2015-10, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    19. Hany Abdel-Latif & Mahmoud El-Gamal, 2018. "Financial Liquidity, Geopolitics, and Oil Prices," Working Papers 1255, Economic Research Forum, revised 15 Nov 2018.
    20. Gupta, Kartick & Banerjee, Rajabrata, 2019. "Does OPEC news sentiment influence stock returns of energy firms in the United States?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 34-45.
    21. Francesco Ravazzolo & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2015. "A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity," Globalization Institute Working Papers 244, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 01 Jun 2015.
    22. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "US monetary policy and sectoral commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 61-85.
    23. Dong, Minyi & Chang, Chun-Ping & Gong, Qiang & Chu, Yin, 2019. "Revisiting global economic activity and crude oil prices: A wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 134-149.
    24. M. Yu. GOLOVNIN, 2018. "External effects of US monetary policy," Outlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law, Center for Crisis Society Studies.
    25. Jaehwan Park, 2018. "Volatility Transmission between Oil and LME Futures," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 65-72, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; Global liquidity; Global real M2; Global financial crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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