Why are crude oil prices high when global activity is weak?
There have been substantial increases in liquidity in recent years and real oil prices have almost returned to the high levels achieved before the global financial crisis. Unanticipated increases in global real M2 led to statistically significant increases in real oil prices. The historical impact of global real M2 on the real price of crude oil is important in the recovery of oil prices over 2009 to 2011.
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