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Granger predictability of oil prices after the Great Recession

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  • Benk, Szilard
  • Gillman, Max

Abstract

Real oil prices surged from 2009 through 2014, comparable to the 1970s oil shock period. Standard explanations based on monopoly markup fall short since inflation remained low after 2009. This paper contributes strong evidence of Granger (1969) predictability of nominal factors to oil prices, using one adjustment to monetary aggregates. This adjustment is the subtraction from the monetary aggregates of the 2008–2009 Federal Reserve borrowing of reserves from other Central Banks (Swaps), made after US reserves turned negative. This adjustment is key in that Granger predictability from standard monetary aggregates is found only with the Swaps subtracted.

Suggested Citation

  • Benk, Szilard & Gillman, Max, 2020. "Granger predictability of oil prices after the Great Recession," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:101:y:2020:i:c:s0261560619301305
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.102100
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    Cited by:

    1. Jiang, Yong & Ren, Yi-Shuai & Narayan, Seema & Ma, Chao-Qun & Yang, Xiao-Guang, 2022. "Heterogeneity dependence between oil prices and exchange rate: Evidence from a parametric test of Granger causality in quantiles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    2. Dibooglu, Sel & Cevik, Emrah I. & Gillman, Max, 2022. "Gold, silver, and the US dollar as harbingers of financial calm and distress," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 200-210.
    3. Olatunji A. Shobande & Simplice A. Asongu, 2021. "Has Knowledge Improved Economic Growth? Evidence from Nigeria and South Africa," Working Papers 21/059, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
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    5. Du, Xiaoxu & Tang, Zhenpeng & Chen, Kaijie, 2023. "A novel crude oil futures trading strategy based on volume-price time-frequency decomposition with ensemble deep reinforcement learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    6. Edoardo Beretta & Doris Neuberger, 2023. "Monetary aggregates in the US since 2020 and post-COVID-19 inflation: evidence from the equation of exchange," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 321-330.
    7. Chen, Jianyu & Zhang, Jianshun, 2023. "Crude oil price shocks, volatility spillovers, and global systemic financial risk transmission mechanisms: Evidence from the stock and foreign exchange markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
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    9. Emrah Ismail Cevik & Sel Dibooglu & Atif Awad Abdallah & Eisa Abdulrahman Al-Eisa, 2021. "Oil prices, stock market returns, and volatility spillovers: evidence from Saudi Arabia," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 157-175, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price shocks; Granger predictability; Monetary base; M1 Divisia; Swaps; Inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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