IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ove/journl/aid19396.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monetary aggregates in the US since 2020 and post-COVID-19 inflation: evidence from the equation of exchange

Author

Listed:
  • Edoardo Beretta
  • Doris Neuberger

Abstract

Starting from Irving Fisher’s equation of exchange ( ) at the basis of the quantity theory of money, we analyze from a theoretical macroeconomic-monetary perspective whether the increase of monetary aggregates M1 and M2 might have affected general prices. Moreover, we investigate why monetary aggregates have evolved differently for COVID-19 than in the global financial crisis (2007-2009). The article elaborates on data for the US from Q1/2020 to Q2/2022 and represents the first scientific contribution to the analysis of post-COVID-19 inflation by means of the equation of exchange. We find that money growth seems to have contributed to inflation supporting the “monetarist†view, but that non-monetary drivers such as supply shocks and increasing profit margins outweigh the monetary ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Edoardo Beretta & Doris Neuberger, 2023. "Monetary aggregates in the US since 2020 and post-COVID-19 inflation: evidence from the equation of exchange," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 321-330.
    • Handle: RePEc:ove:journl:aid:19396
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://reunido.uniovi.es/index.php/EBL/article/view/19396
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benk, Szilárd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2010. "A banking explanation of the US velocity of money: 1919-2004," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 765-779, April.
    2. Mr. Peter Stella & Mr. Manmohan Singh, 2021. "Some Alternative Monetary Facts," IMF Working Papers 2021/006, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Jiang, Tingfeng & Liu, Taoxiong & Tang, Ke & Zeng, Jiaqing, 2022. "Online prices and inflation during the nationwide COVID-19 quarantine period: Evidence from 107 Chinese websites," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    4. Guilherme Bandeira & Evi Pappa & Rana Sajedi & Eugenia Vella, 2018. "Fiscal Consolidation in a Low-Inflation Environment: Pay Cuts versus Lost Jobs," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(3), pages 7-52, June.
    5. Crowder, William J, 1998. "The Long-Run Link between Money Growth and Inflation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(2), pages 229-243, April.
    6. Benk, Szilard & Gillman, Max, 2020. "Granger predictability of oil prices after the Great Recession," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    7. Gillman, Max & Nakov, Anton, 2009. "Monetary effects on nominal oil prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 239-254, December.
    8. Orkideh Gharehgozli & Sunhyung Lee, 2022. "Money Supply and Inflation after COVID-19," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-14, April.
    9. Gertler, Pavel & Hofmann, Boris, 2018. "Monetary facts revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 154-170.
    10. Kinateder, Harald & Wagner, Niklas, 2017. "Quantitative easing and the pricing of EMU sovereign debt," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-12.
    11. Kent Matthews & Kian Ong, 2022. "Is inflation caused by deteriorating inflation expectations or excessive monetary growth?," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 259-274, June.
    12. Aharon, David Y. & Qadan, Mahmoud, 2022. "Infection, invasion, and inflation: Recent lessons," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    13. Rowthorn, R E, 1977. "Conflict, Inflation and Money," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 1(3), pages 215-239, September.
    14. Angela Capolongo & Daniel Gros, 2020. "The ECB is running out of policy space: can fiscal policy help?," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 216-220.
    15. Andrew Glover & Jose Mustre-del-Rio & Alice von Ende-Becker, 2023. "How Much Have Record Corporate Profits Contributed to Recent Inflation?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 0(no.1), pages 1-13, January.
    16. Isabella M. Webe & Evan Wasner, 2023. "Sellers’ inflation, profits and conflict: why can large firms hike prices in an emergency?," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 183-213, April.
    17. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2022. "How Much Do Supply and Demand Drive Inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(15), pages 1-06, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emrah I. Cevik & Sel Dibooglu & Max Gillman & Szilard Benk, 2025. "Granger predictability of real oil prices by us money and inflation in Markov-switching regimes," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 15(1), pages 29-52, March.
    2. Çakır, Metin & Pérez, Ana M. & Arita, Shawn & Cooper, Joseph & Nemec Boehm, Rebecca, 2024. "Perspectives on high U.S. retail food prices during 2020–2022," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Benk, Szilard & Gillman, Max, 2023. "Identifying money and inflation expectation shocks to real oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Julien Pinter, 2022. "Monetarist arithmetic at COVID‐19 time: A take on how not to misapply the quantity theory of money," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 51(2), July.
    5. Nassar S. Al-Nassar & Abdulrahman A. Albahouth, 2023. "Inflation Spillovers among Advanced and Emerging Economies: Evidence from the G20 Group," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-25, April.
    6. Alexander Guschanski & Özlem Onaran, 2025. "UK Markups and Profit Margins during the pandemic and its aftermath," FMM Working Paper 113-2025, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    7. Hein, Eckhard, 2023. "Inflation is always and everywhere … a conflict phenomenon: Post-Keynesian inflation theory and energy price driven conflict inflation," IPE Working Papers 224/2023, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    8. Jo Michell, 2023. "Macroeconomic policy at the end of the age of abundance," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 369-387, November.
    9. Wildauer, Rafael & Kohler, Karsten & Aboobaker, Adam & Guschanski, Alexander, 2023. "Energy price shocks, conflict inflation, and income distribution in a three-sector model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    10. Rolim, Lilian & Carvalho, Laura & Lang, Dany, 2024. "Monetary policy rules and the inequality-augmented Phillips curve," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    11. Scanlon, Paul, 2024. "A model of greedflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    12. Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S. & Wang, Yongli, 2023. "Drivers and spillover effects of inflation: The United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    13. Campana, Juan Manuel, 2024. "Currency devaluations, distribution conflict and inflation in a post-Kaleckian open economy model," IPE Working Papers 240/2024, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    14. Pianta, Mario, 2023. "Inflation and distributive conflicts," MPRA Paper 119345, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Sylvain Leduc & Huiyu Li & Zheng Liu, 2024. "Are Markups Driving the Ups and Downs of Inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2024(12), pages 1-5, May.
    16. Paul Scanlon, 2023. "A Model of Greedflation," Trinity Economics Papers tep1423, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    17. Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2000. "Market concentration and technological innovation in a dynamic model of growth and distribution," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 53(215), pages 447-475.
    18. Usama Almulali & Che Normee Binti Che Sab, 2013. "Exploring the impact of oil revenues on OPEC members' macroeconomy," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 37(4), pages 416-428, December.
    19. Julian di Giovanni & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Alvaro Silva & Muhammed A Yildirim, "undated". "Pandemic-era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2023-01, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Nov 2023.
    20. Helge Berger & Sune Karlsson & Pär Österholm, 2023. "A note of caution on the relation between money growth and inflation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 70(5), pages 479-496, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ove:journl:aid:19396. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Francisco J. Delgado (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deovies.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.