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How Much Do Supply and Demand Drive Inflation?

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Abstract

Inflation has remained at levels well above the Federal Reserve’s inflation goal of 2% for over a year. Separating the underlying data from the personal consumption expenditures price index into supply- versus demand-driven categories reveals that supply factors explain about half of the run-up in current inflation levels. Demand factors are responsible for about one-third, with the remainder resulting from ambiguous factors. While supply disruptions are widely expected to ease this year, this outcome is highly uncertain.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Hale Shapiro, 2022. "How Much Do Supply and Demand Drive Inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(15), pages 1-06, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:94418
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Régis Barnichon & Luiz E. Oliveira & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2021. "Is the American Rescue Plan Taking Us Back to the ’60s?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2021(27), pages 1-06, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sandra Eickmeier & Boris Hofmann, 2022. "What drives inflation? Disentangling demand and supply factors," BIS Working Papers 1047, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Julian di Giovanni & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Alvaro Silva & Muhammed A Yildirim, "undated". "Pandemic-era Inflation Drivers and Global Spillovers," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2023-01, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Nov 2023.
    3. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2023. "One-stop source: A global database of inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. Sylvain Leduc & Daniel J. Wilson & Cindy Zhao, 2023. "Will a Cooler Labor Market Slow Supercore Inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(18), pages 1-6, July.
    5. Paolo Pasimeni, 2022. "Supply or Demand, that is the Question: Decomposing Euro Area Inflation," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(6), pages 384-393, November.
    6. Mary C. Daly, 2022. "Policy Nimbleness Through Forward Guidance," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(17), pages 1-07, June.
    7. Mary C. Daly, 2023. "Forward-Looking Policy in a Real-Time World," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(08), pages 1-8, March.
    8. Karol Szafranek & Grzegorz Szafrański & Agnieszka Leszczyńska-Paczesna, 2023. "Inflation returns. Revisiting the role of external and domestic shocks with Bayesian structural VAR," NBP Working Papers 357, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    9. U. Devrim Demirel & Matthew Wilson, 2023. "Effects of Fiscal Policy on Inflation: Implications of Supply Disruptions and Economic Slack: Working Paper 2023-05," Working Papers 59056, Congressional Budget Office.
    10. Edoardo Beretta & Doris Neuberger, 2023. "Monetary aggregates in the US since 2020 and post-COVID-19 inflation: evidence from the equation of exchange," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 321-330.
    11. Frederic Boissay & Fabrice Collard & Cristina Manea & Adam Shapiro, 2023. "Monetary tightening, inflation drivers and financial stress," BIS Working Papers 1155, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S. & Wang, Yongli, 2023. "Drivers and spillover effects of inflation: The United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    13. Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Gregory Phelan, 2023. "Can Supply Shocks Be Inflationary with a Flat Phillips Curve?," Working Papers 23-36, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    14. Augustus Kmetz & Adam Hale Shapiro & Daniel J. Wilson, 2022. "Can the News Drive Inflation Expectations?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(31), pages 1-6, November.
    15. Lo Duca, Marco & Moccero, Diego & Parlapiano, Fabio, 2024. "The impact of macroeconomic and monetary policy shocks on credit risk in the euro area corporate sector," Working Paper Series 2897, European Central Bank.
    16. Бирликбай Алишер // Birlikbay Alisher & Сейдахметов Ансар // Seidakhmetov Ansar, 2023. "Декомпозиция продовольственной инфляции на факторы спроса и предложения. // Decomposing the basket of goods into supply- and demand-driven categories to analyze food inflation in Kazakhstan," Working Papers #2023-10, National Bank of Kazakhstan.
    17. Nassar S. Al-Nassar & Abdulrahman A. Albahouth, 2023. "Inflation Spillovers among Advanced and Emerging Economies: Evidence from the G20 Group," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-25, April.
    18. Jens H. E. Christensen, 2022. "The Increase in Inflation Compensation: What’s Up?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(18), pages 1-06, July.
    19. Mary C. Daly, 2022. "Resolute and Mindful: The Path to Price Stability," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(23), pages 1-6, November.
    20. Zheng Liu & Thuy Lan Nguyen, 2023. "Global Supply Chain Pressures and U.S. Inflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(14), pages 1-6, June.
    21. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2023. "Understanding the global drivers of inflation: How important are oil prices?11We would like to thank Xuguang Simon Sheng, Guest Editor, and two anonymous reviewers for their detailed feedback. We also," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).

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