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Is the American Rescue Plan Taking Us Back to the ’60s?

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Abstract

The American Rescue Plan provided fiscal support during a strong economic rebound, raising concerns about the risk of fueling inflation. One way to assess this risk of economic overheating uses the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment, which measures labor market slack more accurately and, hence, can predict future inflation better than the unemployment rate alone. Estimates suggest that the fiscal plan acts to temporarily raise the vacancy-to- unemployment ratio, in turn pushing up inflation by about 0.3 percentage point per year through 2022.

Suggested Citation

  • Régis Barnichon & Luiz E. Oliveira & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2021. "Is the American Rescue Plan Taking Us Back to the ’60s?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2021(27), pages 1-06, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:93178
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    1. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Groiss & David Sondermann, 2025. "Help wanted: the drivers and implications of labour shortages," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(33), pages 4882-4896, July.
    2. Laurence M. Ball & Mr. Daniel Leigh & Ms. Prachi Mishra, 2022. "Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era," IMF Working Papers 2022/208, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Augustus Kmetz & Adam Hale Shapiro & Daniel J. Wilson, 2022. "Can the News Drive Inflation Expectations?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(31), pages 1-6, November.
    4. Reuven Glick & Sylvain Leduc & Mollie Pepper, 2022. "Will Workers Demand Cost-of-Living Adjustments?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(21), pages 1-6, August.
    5. Michaillat, Pascal & Saez, Emmanuel, 2024. "Beveridgean Phillips Curve," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5zt7g6hk, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    6. Régis Barnichon & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2022. "What’s the Best Measure of Economic Slack?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(04), pages 1-05, February.
    7. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2022. "How Much Do Supply and Demand Drive Inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(15), pages 1-06, June.

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