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Mr. Keynes meets the Classics: Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate

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  • Born, Benjamin
  • D'Ascanio, Francesco
  • Müller, Gernot
  • Pfeifer, Johannes

Abstract

In economies with fixed exchange rates, the adjustment to government spending shocks is asymmetric. Expansionary shocks are absorbed by the real exchange rate, contractionary shocks by output. This result emerges in a small open economy model with downward nominal wage rigidity and is supported by new empirical evidence based on panel data from different exchange-rate regimes. The exchange-rate regime, economic slack, inflation, and how spending is financed all matter for the fiscal transmission mechanism in the way predicted by the model. Estimates that fail to distinguish between the effects of positive and negative shocks are subject to a "depreciation bias".

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  • Born, Benjamin & D'Ascanio, Francesco & Müller, Gernot & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2019. "Mr. Keynes meets the Classics: Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 14073, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14073
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    3. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Shao, Peng & Zhang, Shuwei, 2023. "Policy coordination and the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
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    6. Lukasz Wiktor Olejnik, 2023. "Economic growth and military expenditure in the countries on NATOʼs Eastern flank in 1999–2021," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2023-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 09 May 2023.
    7. Ferrara, Laurent & Metelli, Luca & Natoli, Filippo & Siena, Daniele, 2021. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Naser Yenus Nuru & Hayelom Yrgaw Gereziher, 2021. "The impacts of public expenditure innovations on real exchange rate volatility in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-72, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Wataru Hirata & Toshitaka Maruyama & Tomohide Mineyama, 2020. "Flattening of the Wage Phillips Curve and Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity: The Japanese Experience in the 2010s," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 20-E-4, Bank of Japan.
    10. Dr. Matthias Burgert & Philipp Pfeiffer & Werner Roeger, 2021. "Fiscal policy in a monetary union with downward nominal wage rigidity," Working Papers 2021-16, Swiss National Bank.
    11. Ricardo Duque Gabriel & Mathias Klein & Ana Sofia Pessoa, 2023. "The Effects of Government Spending in the Eurozone," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 1397-1427.
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    13. Yoon J. Jo & Sarah Zubairy, 2021. "State dependent government spending multipliers: Downward nominal wage rigidity and sources of business cycle fluctuations," Working Papers 20210127-001, Texas A&M University, Department of Economics.
    14. Mamondi Victor Daniel & Oviedo Jorge & De la Rosa Adolfo, 2023. "El-Déficit-Fiscal-Deteriora-el-Tipo-de-Cambio-Real.-Evidencias-por-medio-de-un-modelo-de-EGDE-para-Argentina," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4666, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    15. HSING, Yu, 2021. "Are The Predictions Of The Mundell-Fleming Model Applicable To Argentina?," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 21(1), pages 37-48.
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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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