IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/inecon/v133y2021ics0022199621001045.html

Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Ferrara, Laurent
  • Metelli, Luca
  • Natoli, Filippo
  • Siena, Daniele

Abstract

The paper re-investigates the effects of government spending shocks on the real exchange rate and inflation, using US data. In opposition to some previous puzzling results, we find that an increase in government spending appreciates the real exchange rate and generates inflationary pressures. Positive spending shocks also induce a trade balance deficit and an increase in the nominal interest rate. The discrepancy with the existing literature lies in the identification of fiscal shocks: embedding a narrative instrument within a proxy-SVAR model is what makes the difference. Findings are robust and coherent with a standard open economy business cycle model. Our analysis suggests that proxy-SVAR models are more immune to structural changes in US fiscal policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferrara, Laurent & Metelli, Luca & Natoli, Filippo & Siena, Daniele, 2021. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:133:y:2021:i:c:s0022199621001045
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103524
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199621001045
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103524?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Born, Benjamin & Juessen, Falko & Müller, Gernot J., 2013. "Exchange rate regimes and fiscal multipliers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 446-465.
    2. Baxter, Marianne & King, Robert G, 1993. "Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 315-334, June.
    3. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    4. Alan J Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2016. "Effects of Fiscal Shocks in a Globalized World," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(1), pages 177-215, May.
    5. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2008. "International Risk Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(2), pages 443-473.
    6. Wendy Edelberg & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1999. "Understanding the Effects of a Shock to Government Purchases," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 166-206, January.
    7. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "A Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: The Country Histories, 1946-2001," MPRA Paper 13191, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    9. Tommaso Monacelli & Roberto Perotti, 2010. "Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate and Traded Goods," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 437-461, May.
    10. Li, Dake & Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel & Wolf, Christian K., 2024. "Local projections vs. VARs: Lessons from thousands of DGPs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
    11. Tommaso Monacelli & Roberto Perotti, 2008. "Openness and the Sectoral Effects of Fiscal Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 395-403, 04-05.
    12. Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & Gernot J. Müller, 2013. "Floats, Pegs and the Transmission of Fiscal Policy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 7, pages 235-281, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Michael W. McCracken & Serena Ng, 2016. "FRED-MD: A Monthly Database for Macroeconomic Research," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 574-589, October.
    14. Ester Faia & Tommaso Monacelli, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with Home Bias," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 721-750, June.
    15. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    16. Fabio Canova & Evi Pappa, 2007. "Price Differentials in Monetary Unions: The Role of Fiscal Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 713-737, April.
    17. Benjamin Born & Francesco D'Ascanio & Gernot Müller & Johannes Pfeifer, 2019. "The Worst of Both Worlds: Fiscal Policy and Fixed Exchange Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series 7922, CESifo.
    18. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    19. Alan J. Auerbach, 2009. "Implementing the New Fiscal Policy Activism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 543-549, May.
    20. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2016. "Signals from the government: Policy disagreement and the transmission of fiscal shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 107-118.
    21. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
    22. Antonio Acconcia & Giancarlo Corsetti & Saverio Simonelli, 2014. "Mafia and Public Spending: Evidence on the Fiscal Multiplier from a Quasi-experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 2185-2209, July.
    23. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2014. "Sufficient information in structural VARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 124-136.
    24. Antonio Acconcia & Giancarlo Corsetti & Saverio Simonelli, 2020. "Liquidity and Consumption: Evidence from Three Post-earthquake Reconstruction Programs in Italy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 319-346, July.
    25. Boehm, Christoph E., 2020. "Government consumption and investment: Does the composition of purchases affect the multiplier?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 80-93.
    26. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2010. "Cross-Border Spillovers from Fiscal Stimulus," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(1), pages 5-37, March.
    27. Linnemann, Ludger, 2006. "The Effect of Government Spending on Private Consumption: A Puzzle?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1715-1735, October.
    28. Perotti, Roberto, 2005. "Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    29. Giancarlo Corsetti & Gernot J. Müller, 2013. "Multilateral Economic Cooperation and the International Transmission of Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in an Age of Crisis: Multilateral Economic Cooperation in the Twenty-First Century, pages 257-297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Nadav Ben Zeev & Evi Pappa, 2017. "Chronicle of a War Foretold: The Macroeconomic Effects of Anticipated Defence Spending Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(603), pages 1568-1597, August.
    31. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
    32. Miyamoto, Wataru & Nguyen, Thuy Lan & Sheremirov, Viacheslav, 2019. "The effects of government spending on real exchange rates: Evidence from military spending panel data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 144-157.
    33. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    34. Dario Caldara & Christophe Kamps, 2017. "The Analytics of SVARs: A Unified Framework to Measure Fiscal Multipliers," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(3), pages 1015-1040.
    35. John G. Fernald, 2012. "A quarterly, utilization-adjusted series on total factor productivity," Working Paper Series 2012-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    36. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2018. "Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(610), pages 917-948, May.
    37. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2009. "Erratum to "Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S." [Journal of International Economics. Volume (74) 362-383]," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 276-276, April.
    38. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2013. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1212-1247, June.
    39. Fabio Canova & Mehdi Hamidi Sahneh, 2018. "Are Small-Scale SVARs Useful for Business Cycle Analysis? Revisiting Nonfundamentalness," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 1069-1093.
    40. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 141-146, May.
    41. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    42. Faccini, Renato & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2016. "International fiscal spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 31-45.
    43. Alisdair McKay & Ricardo Reis, 2016. "The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in the U.S. Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 141-194, January.
    44. David Altig & Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Jesper Linde, 2011. "Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 225-247, April.
    45. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    46. Nadav Ben Zeev & Evi Pappa, 2017. "Chronicle of a War Foretold: The Macroeconomic Effects of Anticipated Defence Spending Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(603), pages 1568-1597, August.
    47. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
    48. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    49. Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J. & Scholl, Almuth, 2011. "How do fiscal and technology shocks affect real exchange rates?: New evidence for the United States," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 53-69, January.
    50. Kim, Soyoung, 2015. "Country characteristics and the effects of government consumption shocks on the current account and real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 436-447.
    51. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    52. Seong-Hoon Kim & Seongman Moon & Carlos Velasco, 2017. "Delayed Overshooting: Is It an '80s Puzzle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(5), pages 1570-1598.
    53. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
    54. Emi Nakamura & J?n Steinsson, 2014. "Fiscal Stimulus in a Monetary Union: Evidence from US Regions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 753-792, March.
    55. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "Identification in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 59-86, Summer.
    56. Daniele Siena, 2021. "The Euro Area Periphery and Imbalances: Is it an Anticipation Story?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 40, pages 278-308, April.
    57. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2016. "Government spending shocks in open economy VARs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 68-84.
    58. Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 955-980, March.
    59. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Végh, Carlos A., 2013. "How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 239-254.
    60. Roberto Perotti, 2005. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    61. Ravn, Morten O. & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2012. "Consumption, government spending, and the real exchange rate," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 215-234.
    62. Antonello D'Alessandro & Giulio Fella & Leonardo Melosi, 2019. "Fiscal Stimulus With Learning‐By‐Doing," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1413-1432, August.
    63. José Luis Montiel Olea & Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller, 2021. "Local Projection Inference Is Simpler and More Robust Than You Think," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1789-1823, July.
    64. José Luis Montiel Olea & Carolin Pflueger, 2013. "A Robust Test for Weak Instruments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 358-369, July.
    65. Dupor, Bill & Li, Rong, 2015. "The expected inflation channel of government spending in the postwar U.S," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 36-56.
    66. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
    67. Benjamin Born & Francesco D’Ascanio & Gernot J. Müller & Johannes Pfeifer, 2024. "Mr. Keynes Meets the Classics: Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(5), pages 1642-1683.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Laurent Ferrara & Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli & Daniele Siena, 2020. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, exchange rate and inflation," Working papers 752, Banque de France.
    2. Jørgensen, Peter L. & Ravn, Søren H., 2022. "The inflation response to government spending shocks: A fiscal price puzzle?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    3. Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli, 2021. "The International Transmission of US Tax Shocks: A Proxy-SVAR Approach," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(2), pages 325-356, June.
    4. Choi, Sangyup & Shin, Junhyeok & Yoo, Seung Yong, 2022. "Are government spending shocks inflationary at the zero lower bound? New evidence from daily data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. Natoli, Filippo & Metelli, Luca, 2018. "The international transmission of US fiscal shocks," MPRA Paper 84207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ilori, Ayobami E. & Paez-Farrell, Juan & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2022. "Fiscal policy shocks and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    7. Rüth, Sebastian K. & Simon, Camilla, 2022. "How do income and the debt position of households propagate fiscal stimulus into consumption?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    8. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    9. Virkola, Tuomo, 2014. "Exchange Rate Regime, Fiscal Foresight and the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy," ETLA Reports 20, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    10. Rüth, Sebastian K. & Simon, Camilla, 2020. "How Do Income and the Debt Position of Households Propagate Public into Private Spending?," Working Papers 0676, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    11. Ko, Dong Gyun, 2025. "Did the American Rescue Plan cause inflation? A synthetic control approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    12. Klein, Mathias & Linnemann, Ludger, 2024. "Tax shocks, firm entry, and productivity in the open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    13. Hussain, Syed M. & Liu, Lin, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks: New narrative evidence from Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    14. Désirée I Christofzik & Steffen Elstner, 2021. "International spillover effects of U.S. tax reforms: evidence from Germany," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 578-600.
    15. Henri Keränen & Sakari Lähdemäki, 2020. "Identification of fiscal SVARs in small open economies using trading partner forecast errors as instruments," Working Papers 330, Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE, The Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE.
    16. Jo, Taewoong & Kang, Jihye & Hur, Joonyoung, 2025. "What do we know about estimating government spending multipliers?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    17. Cloyne, James & Jordà , Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2023. "State-Dependent Local Projections: Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity," CEPR Discussion Papers 17903, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Ricardo Duque Gabriel & Mathias Klein & Ana Sofia Pessoa, 2023. "The Effects of Government Spending in the Eurozone," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 1397-1427.
    19. Klein, Mathias & Linnemann, Ludger, 2019. "Tax and spending shocks in the open economy: Are the deficits twins?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    20. Valerie A. Ramey, 2019. "Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 89-114, Spring.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:133:y:2021:i:c:s0022199621001045. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.